多模式风速融合预报应用研究  

Application Research on the Multi-Model Fusion Forecast of Wind Speed

作　　者：石岚[1] 徐丽娜[1] 郝玉珠 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古气象科技服务中心,呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《高原气象》2017年第4期1022-1028,共7页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2015Z13);内蒙古自治区科技计划项目

摘　　要：利用ECMWF集合风速预报产品和目前运行的风能专业数值模式预报产品,通过对比检验分析,设计一种适用于风功率短期预测、电网调度所需的风电场机组轮毂高度风速融合预报产品。即通过多统计量融合,分析其集合、最大最小及时空分布,通过概率分布函数、集合技术,研究提取波动风速的概率信息,指示出最有可能的风速波动位置,对集合存在的量级偏差进行概率匹配技术校准。尝试对各成员贝叶斯概率预报进行融合,获得代表ECMWF集合预报不确定性的集成贝叶斯概率预报,计算不同的集合统计量,形成单值预报,通过ARIMA提升预报的时间分辨率,基于BMA与确定性数值模式预报进行融合,给出机组轮毂最优风速预测曲线和最低最高可信区间。研究表明:融合预报对提升现有数值预报产品的精准度具有明显改进,验证期预报与现有确定性预报比较,平均绝对误差MAE降低了24.3%、相关系数R提升了12.5%;与ECM WF集合预报比较,MAE降低了11.7%、R提升了14.5%。Using ECMWF（ European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts） 100 meters wind speed ensemble forecast products and professional numerical model products on wind power,after the comparative test and analysis,designing a fusion forecast product of wind speed including the single value forecast and the wind speed variation zone in the studied wind farm,which is suitable for short term wind power prediction and electric dispatch. In the paper,the value of ensemble,maximum,minimum,and temporal and spatial distribution are analyzed according to multi statistic fusion,and then the probability information of extremely strong,weak and transition fluctuation of wind speed is researched and extracted using probability distribution function and ensemble technique,the most probable positions of the wind speeds fluctuation are pointed out,the magnitude deviation of the ensemble forecast products is calibrated by probability matching technique. The members of Bayesian probabilistic forecasting are attempted to fuse,thus the fused Bayesian probabilistic forecast representing the uncertainty of ECMWF ensemble forecast is obtained,the single value forecast is formed by calculating the different ensemble statistics at last. Using ARIMA（ Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model） method to improve the time resolution of the forecast,and based on the BMA（ Bayesian model averaging） method and fusion with the deterministic numerical model forecast,the optimal wind speed forecast curve and the wind speed variation zone is produced. The study shows that the BMA method is applied to the short-term wind power forecast and the dynamic fusion prediction model can reduce the forecast error effectively,the fusion forecast has obvious improvement on the accuracy than the ECMWF ensemble forecast and the existing numerical forecast products.Comparison between the validation period and the existing deterministic forecast,MAE decreased by 24. 3%,and the correlation coefficient（ R） was increased 12. 5%. Compared with the ECMW

关 键 词：集合预报 贝叶斯模型 时间降尺度 融合 风电场 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]