管理层归因行为研究——基于业绩预告修正的分析  

Management Attribution Behavior Research： Evidence from Management Revised Forecasts

作　　者：魏哲[1] 罗婷[2] 张海燕[2] 

机构地区：[1]深圳大学经济学院 [2]清华大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中国会计评论》2016年第4期465-482,共18页China Accounting Review

摘　　要：本文研究上市公司修正业绩预告时所做归因行为的动机及影响。研究结果显示，管理层倾向于用外部原因来解释坏消息，而且解职风险越高，这种行为越显著。进一步分析显示，归因选择确实有助于降低管理层的解职风险。本文的研究说明，上市公司管理层在修正业绩预告时存在自利性归因倾向，这种策略能够起到一定的自我保护作用。This paper investigates the motivation and consequences of managers＇ attribu tion behavior in management revised forecasts. Our results indicate that managers tend to at- tribute the bad news to external factors, and the tendency gets stronger with managers＇ dis- missal risk. Further evidence demonstrates that the attribution strategy can reduce managers dismissal risk induced by bad performance. We interpret the results as evidence that managers are self-attributional biased in revised management forecasts and managers can rationally pro- tect themselves through this strategy.

关 键 词：业绩预告修正 自利性归因 解职风险 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F832.51[经济管理—国民经济]