大学最高就业率的验证方法  

Verification Method for the Maximal Employment rate of University

作　　者：刘后伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东农工商职业技术学院热作系,广东广州510507

出　　处：《广东农工商职业技术学院学报》2017年第3期48-53,共6页Journal of Guangdong Agriculture Industry Business Polytechnic

摘　　要：高校对外发布就业率一般为最高就业率。由于就业数据关系到高校的排名、声誉和招生,毫无疑问,它的发布受到发布学校高度重视,但如何对其中存在的错报、漏报、虚报数据进行验证,尚无有效手段。从工作寻找角度出发,假设毕业生的应聘机会为随机、均匀地出现,毕业生应聘次数的分布为泊松分布,再假设毕业生应聘成功是相互独立的,且概率相同,在整个毕业季,毕业生应聘次数是有限的(假设为k次),大学最高就业率为1减去k次应聘都未成功的概率,由此推导出最高就业率估算公式。对广东农工商职业技术学院三届毕业生就业调查,验证了上述模型和估算公式的正确。建议各大学在公布毕业生就业率质量数据时,至少还需公布毕业生应聘次数和成功次数,以便对就业率进行验证。According to the document issued by Ministry of Education of China, colleges affiliated to Ministry of Education should release yearly report on employment quality of graduates of 2013 before Feb. 2014, all the other colleges will do so at the end of 2014, with higher technical colleges by 2015. How to verify the data is an unsolved question yet, especially when the data have great effects on those colleges＇ ranking, reputation and student recruitment. We derived the formulas of the upper limit of employment rate, the maximal rate of employment and verified them in the employment survey of graduates of Guangdong AIB polytechic in three different years. We propose that per capital times of interview, average rate of successful interviews should be released in the report of employment quality of graduates, so that the rate of employment of graduate can be verified.

关 键 词：就业率 人均应聘次数 平均应聘成功率 就业率验证 

分 类 号：G647.38[文化科学—高等教育学]