多舆情事件的演化机理及其公众关注度的替换/叠加效应研究  

A Research on the Evolution Mechanism of Multiple Public Opinion Events and the Substitution/Superposition Effect of Public Attention

作　　者：陈安[1,2] 房亚楠[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学安全与应急管理研究中心,河南焦作454003 [2]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190 [3]河南理工大学应急管理学院,河南焦作454003

出　　处：《广州大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第6期24-29,共6页Journal of Guangzhou University:Social Science Edition

摘　　要：随着互联网的高速发展与普及,人们已经步入网络时代。舆情的主要发展平台也随之从街头巷尾转到互联网上,通过对能引发公众大量关注度的多舆情事件的研究发现其公众关注度存在替换、叠加效应。文章对独立事件的舆情变化规律进行了刻画,并着重研究了相继发生的事件在以上规律的基础上体现出的替换现象,即前一事件在后继事件出现后公众关注度迅速降低,通过搜集一定量的数据证实了这一效应的存在。同时,对存在叠加效应事件的公众关注度曲线的影响因素进行分析,并给出非线性叠加的映射关系式。通过以上研究可以使我们准确把握舆情发展的替换、叠加规律,在今后的舆情解析与舆情控制工作中可以充分利用这一规律引导舆情的良性发展。The rapid development and popularization of internet have brought peopleto an era in which internet serves as the main platform of public opinion. By Studying the multi-public opinion events that man cause public＇ s attention, we find that there is a substitution and superposition effect in public attention. This paper describes the laws of public opinion changes in independent events, and focuses on substitutionrefleeted in successive events on the basis of the above rules,thatthe public attention of previous event quickly reduce after the follow-up incident. The amount of data confirms the existence of this effect. At the same time, the influencing factors of the public attention curve of the superposition effect event are analyzed, and the mapping relation of the nonlinear superposition is given. A research in this area can make us accurately grasp the substitute and superposition effect of multi-public opinion events. In the future this law can be made full use in public opinion analysis and public opinion control to guide the healthy development of public opinion.

关 键 词：网络 多舆情事件 公众关注度 效应 

分 类 号：D630[政治法律—政治学]