中国虚拟经济与实体经济的关联性——基于规模和周期视角的实证研究  

Correlation of the Virtual and the Real Economy:Empirical Research at the Level of Scale and Periodicity

作　　者：苏治 方彤[2] 尹力博[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院,教授北京100081 [2]中央财经大学统计与数学学院,博士研究生北京100081

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2017年第8期87-109,共23页Social Sciences in China

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDC024);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473279和71671193)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：虚拟经济与实体经济背离已成为全球经济体系的"典型化"特征之一,中国经济同样面临"脱实向虚"问题。基于GVAR模型,使用1992—2016年全球主要代表性国家的宏观经济和金融数据,在经济全球化框架下,从规模和周期两个层面重点检验中国虚拟经济与实体经济的关联性。研究结果表明:无论规模水平还是周期波动层面,均存在虚实背离特征;规模水平层面,虚拟经济对实体经济冲击反应具有惰性,对自身冲击反应更灵敏,对实体经济具有"挤出效应";周期波动层面,仅存在实体经济对虚拟经济的短期先导性,非线性格兰杰因果检验进一步验证了背离事实;在虚实背离之下,价格型货币政策能长期抑制虚拟经济与实体经济趋势性背离。这些分析对于习近平总书记指出的中国经济新常态下三大结构性失衡,给予了详实的实证研究支撑。The virtual economy's divergence from the real economy has become a classic feature of the global economic system,and China is no exception.On the basis of the GVAR model and 1992-2016 macro-economic and financial data of major representative countries across the globe,we conducted research focused on testing the correlation between the virtual and the real economy in China in terms of scale and periodicity within the framework of economic globalization.Our findings show that both scale and cyclical fluctuations demonstrate the increasing divergence of the virtualand the real economy.At the level of scale,the virtual economy is unresponsive to the real economy's reaction to shocks but is more sensitive to shocks to itself,and has a'crowding out effect'on the real economy.At the level of cyclical fluctuations,the real economy just has a short-term pilot effecton the virtual economy.A nonlinear Granger causality test further confirms the fact of divergence.In these circumstances,pricing and monetary policy can suppress the tendency for the virtual economy to diverge from the real economy.Our analyses provide detailed empirical support for the three kinds of structural imbalance in the new normal of the Chinese economy pointed out by General Secretary Xi Jinping.

关 键 词：虚拟经济 实体经济 背离关系 货币政策 全球向量自回归 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]