不同预警下传染病疫苗产品需求预测分析——以2009年H1N1为例  

Predictive Analysis of the Demand for Infectious Disease Vaccine Product under Different Early Warnings:A case study of H1N1 in 2009

作　　者：宋劲松[1] 熊文[2] 周清杰[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家行政学院应急管理教研部,北京100089 [2]北京工商大学经济学院,北京100048

出　　处：《华南理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第4期31-39,共9页Journal of South China University of Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"大规模传染病应急产品生产能力储备研究"(13AJY003)

摘　　要：通过对不同预警条件下中国各地传染病疫苗选择偏好的调研,构建了不同疫情下中国疫苗需求预测框架,并以2009年H1N1为例,对不同疫情下的H1N1疫苗需求量进行了预测分析。研究发现:疫苗风险性、有效性及定价差异对疫苗需求量有着重要的影响。风险性的上升、有效性的下降及价格的提高,均会带来需求量的下降。但随着疫情的加重,这种影响会减弱。需求量对价格很敏感,特别是高定价,且会随着有效性的降低或风险性的增大而加强;对有效性与风险性亦很敏感,特别是风险性方面。This study is relevant to the investigation on the basis of the selection preference to infectious disease vaccine under different epidemic situations through investigating the preference of choosing the contagion vaccine in China under different pre-warning scenarios and used the date of H1N1 disease in2009 to analyse the demand forecasting of H1N1 vaccine under different epidemic situations. We found that： the difference of the risk of vaccine,the effectiveness of vaccine and the price of vaccine had the important impact on the demand of vaccine. The rise of the risk,the decline of the effectiveness and the increase of the price would lead the demand of vaccine to drop down. With the worse of the epidemic,this influence would be declined. The demand of vaccine is sensitive to the price,especially to the high price and it will be enhanced with the decline of the effectiveness and the rise of the risk; and it is also sensitive to the effectiveness and the risk,especially to the risk.

关 键 词：预测 疫苗需求 不同预警级别 

分 类 号：F272.13[经济管理—企业管理]