基于蒙特卡洛方法的支撑剂导流能力不确定度评价  

Evaluation of uncertainty in measurement based on Monte-Carlo method

作　　者：陶祖文[1] TAO Zuwen(Downhole Operation Branch of Sinopec Southwest Petroleum Engineering Company, Deyang Sichuan 618000, China)

机构地区：[1]中国石化西南石油工程有限公司井下作业分公司,四川德阳618000

出　　处：《石油化工应用》2017年第9期67-71,75,共6页Petrochemical Industry Application

摘　　要：为解决压裂支撑剂充填层导流能力测量不确定度评定时数学模型过于复杂以及部分偏导数难以求解的问题,本论文采用蒙特卡洛方法对支撑剂充填层导流能力不确定度进行评价,推导了概率密度函数对应的随机变量的获取公式,研究表明试验次数在10万~100万次之间,采用蒙特卡洛方法计算出的估计值和标准不确定度结果稳定,并且试验次数越大,精确度越高。When the measuring mathematical model and the partial derivatives are too difficult to get,Monte-Carlo method is applicable to a single output and input can be approximated to any model probability density function.To further investigate the Monte-Carlo method in the evaluation of measurement uncertainty of the application,the paper analyzes the implementation steps of uncertainty evaluation,and derive the formula of random variables corresponding to its probability density.Example show that trials between one hundred thousand to one million times,the result of using the Monte-Carlo method to calculate the estimated value and standard uncertainty are stable.When the trials number are larger, the interval containing of probability symmetrical of 95 %,and the accuracy is higher.

关 键 词：蒙特卡洛法 压裂 支撑剂 导流能力 测量不确定度 

分 类 号：TE357.12[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]