城市潜在地震次生火灾风险属性区间识别理论  

Potential Risk Analysis of Urban Post-earthquake Fire Based on Attribute Interval Recognition Theory

作　　者：刘晓然 王威[2] LIU Xiaoran WANG We(Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 102616, China Institute of Earthquake Resistance and Disaster Reduction, Beijing University of Technology, Beifing 100124, China)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学,北京102616 [2]北京工业大学抗震减灾研究所,北京100124

出　　处：《灾害学》2017年第4期43-50,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51678017);北京市教育委员会科技计划一般项目(KM201610005029);北京市优秀人才培养资助青年骨干个人项目(00921917202);北京建筑大学博士科研启动基金项目(00331616019)

摘　　要：针对城市地震潜在次生火灾风险分析影响因素的复杂性,首先构建了基于属性区间识别理论的城市地震潜在次生火灾风险评价模型,并采用综合权重法确定权重向量,以最大程度地消除各种不确定性;其次从风险的角度综合考虑地震潜在次生火灾系统中致灾因子和孕灾环境的危险性,承灾体的易损性和暴露性,及城市地震潜在次生火灾风险的抗灾因子,构建了城市地震潜在次生火灾害风险评价指标体系,并制定了相应评价指标的等级标准;最后,应用属性识别理论对某城市地震潜在次生火灾系统中危险性、易损性、暴露性,及抗灾能力进行了计算,并应用证据理论对区域火灾风险性进行了验证分析。结果表明:当城市发生Ⅵ、Ⅶ、Ⅷ度地震时,中等风险以上的区域面积分别达到了50.20%、61.00%、64.90%,说明针对城市的风险级别较高的区域单元应重点防范并采取相应的措施以降低风险。文章证实了属性区间识别理论及证据理论在城市地震潜在次生火灾风险评估中的应用,提高了风险评价结果的稳定性和可靠性,为城市地震潜在次生火灾风险评估提供一种易操作且可行的方法。For the influence factors＇ complexity of the urban post-earthquake fire,theory about the attribute interval recognition is proposed for the potential risk analysis of urban post-earthquake fire. Firstly,an attribute interval recognition model is established to eliminate all kinds of uncertainty to maximize based on the principle of maximum entropy; Secondly,the evaluation index system for the urban post-earthquake fire was presented in terms of urban disaster hazard,exposure and vulnerability of disaster bearing body and disaster prevention and mitigation capability. Meanwhile,the grading standards of evaluation index are also given; finally,potential risk analysis for a city＇s post-earthquake fire is provided to validate and prove its efficiency and feasibility by the evidence theory and attribute interval recognition theory. The results show that the middle and higher risk area reaches 50. 20%,61. 00% and 64. 90% respectively when Ⅵ,Ⅶ,Ⅷ degree earthquake occurs. The application of attribute interval recognition and evidence theory for potential risk assessment of urban post-earthquake fire were verified,which improved the stability and reliability of the risk assessment results,to provide a measurable and achievable approach for the potential risk assessment of urban post-earthquake fire.

关 键 词：城市 地震 次生火灾 属性区间识别 证据理论 最大熵原理 风险分析 

分 类 号：TU981[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]