基于脆弱性曲线的台风-洪涝灾害链房屋倒损评估方法研究  

A Method Research of House Damage in Typhoon-Flood Disaster China Based on Vulnerability Curve

作　　者：郭桂祯 赵飞 王丹丹 GUO Guizhen ZHAO Fei WANG Dandan(National Disaster Reduction Cernter of China, Beijing 100084, China)

机构地区：[1]民政部国家减灾中心,北京100124

出　　处：《灾害学》2017年第4期94-97,共4页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家科技支撑项目(2013BAK05B02)

摘　　要：通过对台风-洪涝灾害链机理研究,以综合致灾强度为参数,根据历史灾情数据拟合东南沿海五省台风灾害房屋倒损脆弱性曲线模型。以2014年"威马逊"台风为例,进行了模型验证,该模型能够较为准确的预评估台风灾害房屋倒损数量,除风暴潮因素干扰外,误差控制在30%以内,能较好的反应台风-洪涝灾害链的致灾机理。The article gives a deep research to the mechanism of Typhoon-flood disaster chain and produces a house damage asessment model of five southeast coastal provinces using Comprehensive disaster magnitude as parameter based on historical disaster loss data. The model can predict house damage quantity in typhoon disaster accurately by verification. The erro can be controlled within 30% discard the storm surge factor which can explain the mechanism of Typhoon-flood disaster chain.

关 键 词：台风-洪涝 灾害链 房屋 倒损评估 易损曲线 致灾强度 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P458.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]