热带气旋灾害风险评估现状综述  

Review on Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment

作　　者：陈文方 端义宏[1] 陆逸[2] 方佳毅[3,4] 石先武 任福民[1] CHEN Wenfang DUAN YihongI LU Yi FANG Jiayi SHI Xianwu REN Fumin(State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing 100081, China Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs ＆ Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Faculty of Environment and Engineering, University of Southampton, Southampton, S017 1B J National Marine Hazard Mitigation Service, Beijing 100194, China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [2]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030 [3]北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [4]英国南安普顿大学环境工程学院 [5]国家海洋局海洋减灾中心,北京100194

出　　处：《灾害学》2017年第4期146-152,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2015CB452806)

摘　　要：全球热带气旋灾害风险随着社会经济的发展、沿海地区人口和财富的加速增长与聚集而持续上升,针对沿海地区热带气旋灾害风险开展精细化的定量评估是实现前瞻性灾害风险管理的前提。该文从面向灾害管理部门开展热带气旋灾害风险管理的角度出发,分别对国际上热带气旋风险评估中致灾因子危险性评估和承灾体脆弱性评估这两个核心内容的研究进展进行综述,分析了其各自的现状、存在的问题及其挑战。然后对我国热带气旋(台风)灾害风险管理体系中风险定量评估的研究现状进行了讨论,针对我国热带气旋风险模型的研究现状提出建议,为未来进一步开展沿海地区台风灾害风险的定量评估研究提供了参考。Global tropical cyclone disaster risks keep rising with the accelerated growth and aggregation of populations and wealth in the coastal areas. In recent decades,refined quantitative assessment of coastal tropical cyclone disaster risk has been regarded as a prerequisite to achieve prospective disaster risk management; therefore,developing the quantitative risk models,which incorporates multi-disciplinary theories and technologies including meteorology,geography,engineering,stochastic mathematics,insurance and so on,is the future direction of tropical cyclone risk management. From the perspective of integrated risk management for tropical cyclone disasters,this paper reviews the status quo of the tropical cyclone risk assessment,including the current development,problems of the two essential composing elements of risk,as the hazards and vulnerability respectively. The paper finally gives a brief overview of research on typhoon risk modelling in China,and provides responding suggestions for further improving quantitative typhoon risk research in coastal areas in China.

关 键 词：热带气旋 风险评估 灾害 致灾因子 脆弱性 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P42[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]