一种分析事故车辆超速概率的方法  

A method for analyzing probability of overspeed of an accident vehicle

作　　者：李华[1,2] 邹铁方 刘勇[1,2] 李岳林 赵冬[3] LI Hua ZOU Tiefang LIU Yong LI Yuelin ZHAO Dong(School of Automobile and Mechanical Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha Hunan 410004, China Hunan Province Key Laboratory of Safety Design and Reliability Technology for Engineering Vehicle, Changsha Hunan 410004, China Traffic Management Research Institute of ministry of Public Security, Wuxi Jiangsu 214151, China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学汽车与机械工程学院,湖南长沙410004 [2]工程车辆安全性设计与可靠性技术湖南省重点实验室,湖南长沙410004 [3]公安部交通管理科学研究所,江苏无锡214151

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2017年第7期71-76,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51176014;51208065);湖南省自然科学基金资助(2016JJ2003);道路交通安全公安部重点实验室开放基金资助(2016ZDSYSKFKT08)

摘　　要：为分析区间痕迹下事故车辆超速的概率,基于子区间技术建立一种求解方法。首先将输入痕迹区间分成若干子区间,将不同痕迹的子区间组合成若干子空间域;然后将事故再现模型在子空间域上做一阶泰勒展开,并结合区间四则运算法则计算事故再现模型在每一子空间域上的上下界,得到事故再现车速子区间;最后对所得子区间进行分析,取下界大于路段限速值的子区间数除以该数与上界小于路段限速值的子区间数的和的值作为事故车辆超速的概率值。2个数值算例表明:所建方法与蒙特卡罗方法所得概率一致,且所建方法无需对输入痕迹的分布进行假设;一例真实的碰撞事故案例表明:用该方法可解决实际问题,案例中事故车辆超速的概率为53.7%。In order to analyze the probability that the speed was greater than the speed limit value at an accident section,a method was worked out based on the sub-interval technique. In this new method,every input parameter was divided to many sub-intervals,and then all sub-intervals of different parameters were combined to form many sub-domains.Then,the accident reconstruction model would be Taylor expanded in each sub-domain and the upper and lower bounds of the reconstruction model could be calculated,and the sub-accident reconstruction velocity interval can be obtained.Finally,the number of sub-intervals of which the upper bound of the sub-accident reconstruction result interval was lower than the speed limit value and the number of sub-intervals of which the lower bound of the sub-accident reconstruction result interval was greater than the speed limit were all counted,and then the frequency of the later was recorded as the probability that the reconstructed velocity was greater than the speed limit value. Results of two numerical cases show that all results obtained by using the proposed method are almost the same as results obtainedby using the Monte Carlo method,and no assumption should be made in the proposed method. Finally,a true collision accident was given to show the application of the proposed method. The results show that the probability of speed which is greater than the speed limit value at an accident section is 53. 7%.

关 键 词：事故再现 车速 子区间 概率 路段限速值 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]