复杂工程项目施工阶段行为风险评价模型  

Model for evaluating behavior risk in construction stage of complex construction project

作　　者：温国锋[1] 房颖[1] 张帆帆 WEN Guofeng FANG Ying ZHANG Fanfan(School of Management Science and Engineering, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai Shandong 264005, Chin)

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院管理科学与工程学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2017年第8期162-168,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助(13YJA630100);"十三五"山东省高等学校科研创新平台项目;山东工商学院研究生科技创新基金资助(2016yc1201004)

摘　　要：为更好地评价复杂工程项目施工阶段的主体行为风险,根据行为风险特点,从行为主体、组织行为、项目管理目标等3个维度,全面识别该阶段的主体行为风险因素,构建评价指标体系。在分析对比相关模型的基础上,引入直觉模糊层次分析法(IFAHP),以确定评价指标的权重;利用直觉模糊加权平均(IFWA)算子,集结群决策下的定性和定量指标评价信息,构建IFAHP主体行为风险评价模型,并通过运行算例检验其有效性。结果表明:该模型充分考虑了行为风险的不确定性和专家评价模糊性,用其最终得到的行为风险等级与实际情况相符。In order to evaluate the subject behavior risk in construction phase of the complex construction project better,subject behavior risk factors were identified comprehensively for the construction phase,then an evaluation indicator system was established.These were based on the character of behavior risk and get from three dimensions-behavior subject,organizational behavior and project management goal.Weights of the factors were obtained by using the IFAHP method.Pieces of information on both the qualitative evaluation and the quantitative evaluation of the factors were assembled for the group decision making by using IFWA operators.Then a subject behavior risk evaluation model of IFAHP was built.Finally.The validity of the model was verified by running an example.The result shows that the model fully considers the uncertainty of behavior risk and the fuzziness of expert evaluation,and that the evaluation of the subject behavior risk by the model conforms with the actual situation.

关 键 词：复杂工程项目 直觉模糊层次分析法(IFAHP) 主体行为风险 直觉模糊加权平均(IFWA)算子 风险评价 

分 类 号：X948[环境科学与工程—安全科学]