不确定环境下基于ELECTRE的多式联运路径选择评价方法  

An ELECTRE-based Evaluation Method under Uncertainty for Multi-modal Route Selection

作　　者：胡辉[1] 顾丽琴[1] 查伟雄[2] HU Huia GU Li-qina ZHA Wei-xiongb(a.Sehool of Economies and Managemen b. Institute of Transportation and Economies, East China Jiaotong University, Nanehang Jiangxi 30013, Chin)

机构地区：[1]华东交通大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330013 [2]华东交通大学交通运输与经济研究所,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第4期88-97,共10页Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目"我国物流业低碳化发展路径与对策研究"(14YJAZH024);江西省教育厅人文社科规划项目"多式运输导向下基于ELECTRE的可持续供应链建模研究"(GL1513);华东交通大学校立课题"基于多式联运的供应链优化研究"(24341055)

摘　　要：物流运输是供应链的重要组成部分,合理选择物流的运输方式,实现多种交通方式的优化配置,对于降低物流成本、推进绿色供应链的实施有着重要意义。从经济、社会、环境等三个层面构建多式联运环境中的物流运输路径评价指标体系,并借助层次分析法确定各级指标的权重。考虑到指标数据的不确定性,将随机模拟和ELECTRE方法充分结合,提出一种不确定环境下基于ELECTRE的多属性决策评价方法。应用实例表明该评价决策方法是可行的、有效的,并能提供更多的辅助信息以供决策。As logistics transportation is an important part of supply chain, the selection of logistics transporta- tion routes with optimized transport modes can help to reduce logistics cost and improve green supply chain management. This paper established an evaluation index system of logistics transportation routes in multi- mode transport environment from the aspects of economy, society and environment and decided the index weight using AHP method. Considering the uncertainty of the data, a new multiple-attribute ELECTRE- based decision evaluation method in uncertain conditions is put forward combining stochastic simulation and ELECTRE model. The study uses a case of application to demonstrate the feasibility, validity and effectiveness of this method in providing ancillary information for decision-making.

关 键 词：多式联运 路径选择 随机模拟 ELECTRE简化法 

分 类 号：F252[经济管理—国民经济]