辽宁省沿海主要港口市场占有率预测  

Forecasting of Market Share of Major Coastal Ports in Liaoning

作　　者：吴宏宇[1] 张培林[1] 夏炎 Wu Hongyu Zhang Peilin Xia Yan(School of Communication, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063 Three Gorges Navigation Authority, Yichang 443002, China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学交通学院,湖北武汉430063 [2]长江三峡通航管理局,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《物流技术》2017年第9期78-80,共3页Logistics Technology

摘　　要：为预测辽宁省沿海主要港口市场占有率,在对辽宁省沿海港口现状分析的基础上,对辽宁省沿海港口进行划分,并构建马尔科夫预测模型。将货物吞吐量作为市场占有率指标,根据2008-2015年辽宁省沿海主要港口货物吞吐量数据,结合所建预测模型,运用lingo软件求解状态转移概率矩阵,得到2016-2019年辽宁省沿海主要港口市场占有率,并通过了误差检验。预测结果表明,2016-2019年,大连港市场占有率呈现连续下降的趋势,营口港市场占有率稳步提升,其他港口市场占有率总和保持相对稳定。In this paper, in order to forecast the market share of the major coastal ports in Liaoning, on the basis of analyzing the status quo of these ports, we grouped them into different classes and built the corresponding Markov forecasting model. Then with cargo throughput as an indicator of market share, we applied the established model to the cargo throughput data of these ports for the period between 2008 and 2015, and used the Lingo software to solve the state transition matrix to obtain the projected market share of these ports for the period between 2016 and 2019. According to the forecasting, in this period, the market share of Dalian Port will continuously drop, that of Yingkou Port steadily grow, while the total market share of other ports combined remain relatively stable.

关 键 词：市场占有率 预测 马尔科夫模型 转移概率矩阵 辽宁港口 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济] F550.6