2005-2014年新疆地区具有免疫乙肝动力学模型及其控制  

Study on Dynamic Model of Hepatitis B in Xinjiang during 2005-2014

作　　者：赵甜甜 罗冬梅[2] 徐巍 李雪瑶 迪力福扎.乌司曼 杨奕[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学医学工程技术学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《科技视界》2017年第20期1-2,36,共3页Science & Technology Vision

基　　金：大学生创新项目[CX2016102]

摘　　要：目的:通过对2005-2014年新疆地区乙肝新发病例数据的建模分析,为制定疫情防控策略提供科学参考。方法:利用传染病动力学的方法构建乙肝动力学模型,并对模型进行数值模拟和定量分析,显示疾病的发展过程,预测乙肝未来的发展变化趋势,分析影响乙肝流行的关键因素。结果:建立了乙肝的传播动力学模型,给出相关参数值,结果发现模型拟合值与实际发病数基本吻合,基本再生数R0=4.11(95%CI:4.00-4.26),该模型预测到2020年乙肝累积发病数将会达到615 550例。结论:新疆乙肝未来几年仍有上升趋势,相关部门应加强乙肝健康教育宣传力度,做好疫苗接种工作等综合性干预措施来控制乙肝的蔓延。Objective：By analyzing the data of new HBV cases during 2005-2014 in Xinjiang to further provide some reference basis for control strategies. Methods：The model of hepatitis B was established by using the method of infectious disease dynamics, and the model was simulated and quantitatively analyzed,predicted the future development of trend,and analyze the key factors affecting the epidemic of hepatitis B.Resuhs The syphilis dynamical model was introduced, the methods of setting the relevant parameters were given,which had high precision and the simulated value was close to the true value, and the basic reproduction number of outbreak epidemic is estimated to be R0=4.11 （95% CI：4.00-4.26）,it is predicted that the cumulated-HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 615 550 cases by 2024.Conclusion There is still an upward trend in the prevalence of HBV infection in Xinjiang,and the relevant departments should strengthen the propaganda of HBV health education, do a good job of vaccination and other comprehensive interventions to control the spread of HBV.

关 键 词：乙肝 动力学模型 基本再生数 数值模拟 

分 类 号：O175[理学—数学]