基于QUAIDS模型的中国农村居民消费需求实证分析  

An Empirical Study on the Chinese Rural Households' Consumption: Based on QUAIDS Model

作　　者：元惠连[1] 夏庆杰[1] 王小林[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院 [2]国务院扶贫办信息中心

出　　处：《劳动经济研究》2017年第4期48-82,共35页Studies in Labor Economics

基　　金：2015年北京市社会科学基金研究基地项目"北京城市多维贫困问题研究"(项目编号:15JDJGA071)的资助

摘　　要：本文使用中国家庭收入调查(CHIP)的农村入户调查数据和二次型近似理想需求系统模型(QUAIDS),分析了1995年、2002年和2007年的中国农村居民家庭消费需求结构变化。农村居民消费结构升级速度虽然慢于城镇,但基本生活需求逐步得到满足,医疗、交通通讯、教育文化和居住的需求在增加。包含家庭特征的QUAIDS模型估计结果表明,家庭特征对农村居民消费行为与弹性影响较为显著,老年家庭的医疗保健负担、中年家庭的子女教育负担尤其重,且家庭之间的支出差距越来越受收入(总支出)的影响。从支出弹性的变化趋势来看,医疗和教育等发展型支出的弹性逐渐上升,1995年小于1的弹性2007年都大于1;交通通讯、居住等提高生活水平的支出弹性也在2007年发生转折。This paper examines the change of the Chinese rural household consumption demand using QUAIDS model and the CHIP 1995, 2002 and 2007 rural household survey data. Although the upgrading speed of the rural household consumption structure is much slower than that of the urban, the former＇s basic needs has been satisfied gradually, and their medical, transportation and communication, education and housing demands have been increasing. The estimated results of the QUAIDS model incorporating household characteristics show that household characteristics significantly affect rural households＇ consuming behavior and elasticity, the burden of medical care for elderly households and that of children education for middle-aged households are particularly heavy, and finally the inequality of household expenditure is increasingly affected by their income. From the trend of expenditure elasticity, the elasticity of medical care and that of education are gradually increasing, those elasticities that are less than 1 in 1995 become larger than 1 in 2007, and the expenditure elasticity of transportation and communication and that of housing also change at the year of 2007.

关 键 词：农村家庭消费 CHIP数据 QUAIDS 非线性模型 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济]