地方政府自主发债的最优规模与风险控制--基于四省份的实证分析  

The Optimal Size and Risk Control of the Local Government to Issue Bonds:Based on the Comparison of Four Provinces

作　　者：方来 柴娟娟 FANG Lai CHAI Juan-juan

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学中国西北金融研究中心 [2]兰州财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2017年第10期12-20,共9页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

摘　　要：自从我国财政分税制改革以来,地方政府财政收支不平衡日益加剧,债务融资需求不断扩张,致使市政债券逐渐成为解决地方政府资金需求的重要融资工具之一。在地方政府自主发债过程中,如何确定发债规模、测量预期违约率、有效控制风险引发了学术界的广泛思考与探索。笔者选择KMV模型对东、中、西、东北地区具有代表性的江苏、河南、陕西和辽宁四个省份在不同期限和不同发债规模下的违约率进行预测,并确定了合理的发债规模,为风险的控制提供精准支持。与其他度量地方政府债券信用风险的文献相比,笔者在测量地方政府可担保财政收入时创新性地引入了上级政府补助收入和当前到期债务两个指标,使预期违约率的计算更加科学、发债规模更加准确。研究结论为四省份加强债券风险监控、信用风险科学评估、制定合理风险防范措施提供了科学依据。Since the reform of China＇s fiscal taxation, the local government imbalance of fiscal revenue and expenditure is increasingly, debt financing demands expand continually, and the municipal bonds have gradually become important financing tools to solve the local government capital requirements. In the process of local government issues bonds, how to determine the size of the bonds, measure the expected default rate, effectively control the risk led to a wide range of academic thinking and exploration. In this paper, the KMV model is used to predict the default rates of four representative provinces of Jiangsu, Henan, Shanxi and Liaoning in different periods and different debt size in East, Middle, West and Northeast China, and determines the reasonable bond size and provides precise support for risk control. Compared with other documents that measure the credit risk of local government bonds, the paper innovatively introduces two indicators which are higher level government subsidy income and current maturing debt to measure the local government guaranteed fiscal revenue. The method could calculate the expected default rate more scientific and determine the bond size more accurate. of bonds, scientific provinces The conclusion of the study provides a scientific basis for strengthening the risk monitoring evaluation of credit risk and developing reasonable risk prevention mechanism in the four provinces.

关 键 词：自主发债 KMV 模型 预期违约率 风险控制 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]