长沙市戊型肝炎发病与气象因素关系的负二项回归模型分析  

Negative Binomial Regression Model Analysis on the Relationship between Hepatitis E and Meteorological Factors in Changsha

作　　者：谢知[1] 刘如春[1] 陈田木[1] 张恒[1] 胡伟红[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省长沙市疾病预防控制中心,410000

出　　处：《中国全科医学》2017年第14期1693-1696,共4页Chinese General Practice

摘　　要：目的探讨戊型肝炎发病与气象因素的关系。方法收集2004—2015年长沙市每月戊型肝炎发病数和气象数据。通过过离散检验、模型拟合效果指标的比较评价Poisson回归模型和负二项回归模型的优劣,选择最优模型分析影响戊型肝炎发病的气象因素。结果 2004—2015年长沙市共报告戊型肝炎1 355例,年发病率为(0.21~2.77)/10万,全年散发,其中以2—5月居多。根据各气象资料的相关性分析,选择月降水量、月平均气压、月平均风速、月平均气温、月平均相对湿度、月降水日数、月日照时数进入模型。过离散检验和模型拟合效果指标显示,负二项回归模型拟合效果优于Poisson回归模型。负二项回归模型分析显示,月平均气温[b=-0.024,95%CI(-0.036,-0.013)]、月降水日数[b=0.047,95%CI(0.032,0.062)]、月日照时数[b=0.003,95%CI(0.001,0.005)]是长沙市戊型肝炎发病的影响因素(P<0.05)。结论气温降低、降水日数增多、日照时间延长是长沙市戊型肝炎发病例数增多的气象因素。Objective To explore the relationship between hepatitis E and meteorological factors. Methods Themonthly reported cases of hepatitis E and meteorological data in Changsha from 2004 to 2015 were collected. Through thecomparison of discrete test and model fitting effect indicators, advantages and disadvantages of Poisson regression model andnegative binomial regression model were evaluated. The optimal model was selected to analyze the meteorological factors of theincidence of hepatitis E. Results From 2204 to 2015,there were 1 355 cases reported with hepatitis E in Changsha. The annualincidence was （0.21 -2.77） per 100 000 people. There were sporadic cases in each month, but most occurred betweenFebruary and May. According to the results of correlation analysis of meteorological data, monthly total precipitation, monthlyaverage air pressure, monthly average wind speed, monthly average temperature, monthly average relative humidity, monthlydays of raining and monthly sunshine hours were enrolled into the model. The indicators of discrete test and model fitting effectshowed that the effect of negative binomial regression model was better than that of Poisson regression modelregression model analysis showed that monthly average temperature [ 6 = - 0. 0 2 4, 95% Cl （ - 0. 0 3 6, - 0. 013 ）〕, were infuence factors of hepatitis E in Changsha （P 〈0.05） . Conclusion Lowered average temperature, longer sunshine hours are the meteorological factors of increased number of cases with hepatitis E.

关 键 词：戊型肝炎 天气和发病 二项分布 影响因素分析 

分 类 号：R512.6[医药卫生—内科学]