耦合S曲线和贝叶斯网络的水利工程成本-进度仿真分析及应用  

Hydraulic Engineering Cost-schedule Simulation Method and Application Based on S-Curve and Bayesian Network

作　　者：徐娜[1] 朱磊 

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300354 [2]廊坊市水务局,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2017年第10期163-168,共6页China Rural Water and Hydropower

摘　　要：针对工程施工成本优化与进度风险分析问题,提出了耦合S曲线和贝叶斯网络的施工成本-进度仿真分析方法。根据成本-进度S曲线对施工成本进行优化与控制;利用贝叶斯风险分析方法研究小型水利工程因工期短而普遍存在的进度风险问题,通过贝叶斯网络对进度风险的敏感性分析确定关键进度风险因素,为工程施工成本与进度管理提供有力依据。该方法成功应用于某河渠防护工程中,河渠防护工程成本优化及关键进度风险因素的确定为施工成本与进度定量分析提供有效支持。A construction cost and schedule simulation method based on S-Curve and Bayesian network is put forward here to optimize construction cost and analyze construction schedule risk. Controlling and optimizing construction cost is based on analyzing Cost-Schedule S- Curve; analyzing the common schedule risk problem of small hydraulic engineering by Bayesian risk analysis method, through sensitivity analysis of Bayesian Network to identify the main schedule risk factors, it provides support to construction cost and schedule management. The method has been applied in a canal protection project successfully, the result indicated that the optimization of construction cost and the identification of main schedule risk factors provides effective support for quantitative cost and schedule analysis.

关 键 词：工程仿真 S曲线 贝叶斯网络 成本优化 进度风险 

分 类 号：TV512[水利工程—水利水电工程]