城市生态文明建设进程中生态足迹的动态演变及驱动因子分析——以南宁市为例  

Study on Dynamic Change of Ecological Footprints and Driving Factors in the Process of Urban Ecological Civilization Construction——A Case of Nanning City

作　　者：宇鹏[1] 高超 胡宝清[1] YU Peng GAO Chao HU Baoqing(Guangxi Teachers Education University, Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Resources Use in Beibu Gulf （ Ministry of Education）, Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Intelligent Simulation Nanning 530001)

机构地区：[1]广西师范学院北部湾环境演变与资源利用教育部重点实验室广西地表过程与智能模拟实验室,南宁530001

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2017年第10期11-15,共5页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：广西自然科学基金(2016GXNSFAA380087);广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目(2017KY0410)

摘　　要：用扩展的STIRPAT模型、主成分回归分析法,对南宁市2005~2012年生态足迹、化石能源足迹的驱动机制进行分析,并对南宁市经济增长与生态足迹、化石能源足迹的演变关系进行Kuznets曲线检验。结果表明:总人口、人均GDP、城市化率对南宁市生态足迹、化石能源足迹具有正向驱动作用,而万元GDP能耗、第三产业产值比重对生态足迹、化石能源足迹的驱动作用为负向,在2005~2012年经济增长与生态足迹、化石能源足迹的Kuznets曲线检验中并没有呈现"倒U型",南宁市的经济发展仍处于经济增长伴随着生态环境压力增大的阶段。The improved STIRPAT model, combined with principal component regression analysis method, has been used to analyze the driving mechanism of the Nanning ecological footprint （ energy consumption footprint） in 2005 - 2012, and test the relationship between economic growth and ecological footprint （energy consumption footprint） by using Kuznets curve. The results show that the population, per capita GDP and urbanization rate has a positive effect on the ecological footprint （energy consumption footprint）, while the energy consumption per unit of GDP and the proportion of the tertiary industry~ output contributes negatively to the ecological footprint （ energy consumption foot- print）. The relationship between economic growth and ecological footprint （energy consumption footprint） even hasn＇ t shown inverted ＂U＂ curve. The economic development of Nanning is still in the stage that he economic growth is ac- companied by the increase of ecological environment pressure.

关 键 词：生态文明 生态足迹 驱动因子 主成分回归分析 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]