基于Logistic的信息产业上市公司财务预警模型构建  

Based on Logistic Regression Analysis of Financial Early Warning of Listed Companies in Information Industry

作　　者：张静瑜 林娟[1] 王玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)人文经管学院

出　　处：《财会通讯（中）》2017年第11期100-104,共5页Communication of Finance and Accounting

摘　　要：信息产业作为一个新兴产业正在迅速发展中,其财务预警就显得尤为重要。本文基于Logistic分析法对我国信息产业上市公司进行财务预警研究。本文从沪深A股市场信息产业上市公司选取了30家ST公司及30家非ST上市公司作为配对样本,获取了这60家相关的财务及非财务数据,利用T检验选取最终模型所需的财务指标,进行Logistic回归分析,建立财务预警模型。随机选取了25家信息产业上市公司在2013~2014年间的数据检验模型,验证结果的正确率达到100%。证明模型具有可信性。The information industry develops rapidly as a new industry. Financial early warning is important for information industry. Logistic regression analysis is selected as the main research method in this paper. 30 ST listed companies of information industry and 30 non-ST listed companies as paired samples are chose from Chinese A-share stock market. Financial and non-financial data of 60 related listed companies are gotten and the financial data of model is selected by using T test. And this paper builds a financial early warning model by Logistic regression analysis. Data of 25 listed company of information industry in2013-2014 are selected randomly in the paper. Then the data is used to validate the model. The accurate rate of verification is100%. As a result, the model in this paper is credible.

关 键 词：信息产业 财务预警 LOGISTIC分析 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F49[经济管理—国民经济]