我国工业化与城镇化的环境经济集聚双门槛效应分析  

Analysis of the Double Threshold Effect of Industrialization and Urbanization in the Proceed of Environment Economic Aggregation

作　　者：刘满凤 谢晗进 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学协同创新中心,南昌330013 [2]华东交通大学经济管理学院,南昌330013

出　　处：《管理评论》2017年第10期21-33,共13页Management Review

基　　金：国家社科基金重大招标项目(15ZDC021);国家自然科学基金项目(71263020);江西省科技落地计划项目(KJLD12064);江西省高校哲学社会科学重大招标项目(ZDGG201305)

摘　　要：本文通过建立工业化与城镇化双门槛效应模型,以及对环境经济集聚的空间效应分析,验证了经济集聚与污染集聚之间表现为"N型"环境库兹涅茨曲线,且工业化与城镇化存在双门槛效应。当工业化率介于41.76%与44.89%之间或城镇化率高于88.50%,经济集聚产生的负面效应最小,EKC曲线中改善的"拐点"值最小,恶化的"拐点"值最大,即经济发展可以迅速跨过越发展越污染的拐点,进入再发展少污染的轨道,并推迟下一个拐点的到来。在分析"十二五"时期各省市工业化与城镇化发展现状和"拐点"特征基础上,提出"十三五"时期各省市经济与环境协调发展的对策建议,即优先推进江浙沪的协同发展;以北京和天津为引领推动京津冀一体化发展;在泛珠三角区域合作大背景下推进广东与福建的协同发展,深化闽粤经济合作;依托环渤海与京津冀经济圈的区位优势实现山东与辽宁的协调发展,以此重点突破东北困境。In this paper,through establishing the threshold effect model of industrialization and urbanization and analyzing the spatial effect of environment economic aggregating,the ＂N-shaped＂Environment Kuznets Curve between economic agglomeration and pollution agglomeration is verified,and the double threshold effect existing between industrialization and urbanization is also found. When the industrialization rate is between 41.67% and 44.89% or urbanization rate is above 88.50%,the economic agglomeration causes the lowest negative effect,the improving＂turning point＂is smaller and the deteriorating＂turning point＂is bigger in Environment Kuznets Curve. It means that economic development can quickly step over the ＂turning point＂of the stage where faster development produces more pollution and step into a stage where faster development produces less pollution,thus putting off the arrival of next＂turning point＂. By analyzing each province＇s current situation,future trend and characteristics of ＂turning point＂between industrialization and urbanization in the＂12 th Five-year Plan＂period,this paper offers some corresponding suggestions for each province to harmonize economic development and environmental pollution in the＂13 th Five-year Plan＂period. To be specific,it is advised to prioritize the coordinated development of Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai,take the regional advantage of Beijing and Tianjin to drive the integrative development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic zone,promote the collaborative development of Guangdong and Fujian and deepen their cooperation as a part of the broader cooperation in Pan-Pearl River Delta region,and rely on the location advantage of Circum-Bohai Sea economic zone and BeijingTianjin-Hebei economic zone to realize the harmonious development of Shandong and Liaoning and break through the development bottleneck of Northeastern China.

关 键 词：城镇化水平 工业化水平 门槛效应 空间效应 

分 类 号：F299.21[经济管理—国民经济] F424[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X196