滇中地区气候变化对粮食单产的影响分析  

Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield in the Middle Region of Yunnan

作　　者：邱丽丽 彭燕梅 尹艳琼 

机构地区：[1]楚雄师范学院地理科学与旅游管理学院,云南楚雄675000

出　　处：《环境科学导刊》2017年第6期5-10,共6页Environmental Science Survey

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(西部生态脆弱区生态保护功能定位与建立生态补偿机制研究14XMZ074);云南省教育厅基金项目(滇中地区未来气候变化趋势的分形研究2013Y054)

摘　　要：根据地面气象观测和农业生产统计数据,采用线性回归和Mann-Kendall检验分析了滇中地区年平均气温和年降水量的动态变化。采用生产函数和经济-气候模型拟合验证气候变化对粮食单产的影响。1990—2012年,滇中地区粮食单产平稳上升。年平均气温呈升高趋势,升高速率为0.451℃/10 a;年降水量呈减少趋势,减少速率为-110.84 mm/10 a。C-D生产函数拟合表明劳动力和有效灌溉面积对粮食单产的影响显著,但农机动力和化肥投入对其影响并不显著。气温和降水的弹性系数分别是0.013和5.125×10-5。当气温和降水的二次方变量引入经济-气候模型后,其拟合优度明显提高;且表明,在其他投入要素不变的情况下,过去23年及未来滇中地区的气温升高不利于提高粮食单产;相反,年降水量的减少却对粮食单产的提高没有负作用。Based on the data from meteorological observation and agricultural production,linear regression and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the dynamic change of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation in the middle region of Yunnan. The impact of climate change on grain yield per unit area was verified by the C-D production function and economy-climate model. During the period of 1990 to 2012,the grain yield per unit area increased steadily in this area. Annual mean temperature increased by the rate of 0. 451℃/10 a,while annual precipitation decreased by-110. 84 mm/10 a. The C-D production function showed that labor force and effective irrigation had significant effect on grain yield,while agricultural machinery power and fertilizer investment had no significant effect on it. The elastic coefficients of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation were 0. 013 and 5. 125 × 10-5,respectively. When the squares of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation were taken for independent variables,the fitting degree of economy-climate model was improved significantly. The result suggested that if other input factors were invariable,annual mean temperature rise was not conducive to improve grain yield per unit area during the past 23 years and the future,on the contrary,annual precipitation reducing indicatedzero negative effect on it.

关 键 词：气候变化 粮食单产 影响 年均气温 年降水 滇中地区 

分 类 号：X21[环境科学与工程—环境科学]