气象灾害对江西省不同季水稻产量影响的灰色关联分析  

Grey correlation analysis of meteorological disasters affecting different season rice production in Jiangxi Province

作　　者：蔡波[1] 胡凯[1] 傅青[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330045

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2017年第7期1-7,共7页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：教育部人文社科项目(11YJC630008);江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(JJ1224);江西省社会科学规划项目(11YJ34);江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ14279)

摘　　要：选取1986—2014年江西省早稻、中稻、晚稻单产数据以及水稻因不同气象灾害(旱灾、洪涝灾、风雹、霜冻和台风)造成的受灾、成灾和绝收面积数据,运用灰色关联分析法计算不同季水稻单产与5种气象灾害的关联系数,并利用相关数据计算不同季水稻的灾损量和灾损率。结果表明,不同季水稻单产与洪涝灾害的关联系数大,说明洪涝灾害对水稻产量的影响程度大;从时间跨度看,不同季水稻单产受气象灾害影响程度除风雹外都在减弱;不同季水稻由于播种和收获时间不同,受到气象灾害的影响程度不同,中稻受影响程度高于早稻和晚稻。灾损量分析结果显示,江西省气象灾害造成稻谷年均减产162.9万t,相当于年均31.33万hm2水稻种植面积的产量。最后,提出了建设高标准农田、加强农田水利、路渠配套等基础设施建设实现旱涝保收,合理规划不同季水稻种植区域等水稻生产和防灾减灾方面的对策建议。This paper selected the data of per unit yield of early rice,middle-season rice and late rice and the data of damage,inundated and crop area caused by different meteorological disasters from 1986 to 2014 in Jiangxi province,and the correlation coefficients between different season rice yield and meteorological disasters were calculated by using the grey correlation analysis method. And related data were used to calculate the amount of damage and the damage rate of different season rice. The results showed that the correlation coefficient between different season rice and flood was larger than other meteorological disasters,it meant that the impact of flood on rice yield was heavy. From the time span,different season rice yield affected by meteorological disasters degree were diminished besides wind hail. Due to the various time of sowing and reaping,different season rice was affected by meteorological disasters with varying degrees,middle-season rice was affected by meteorological disasters more heavy than early rice and late rice. Through analysis on the amount of damage,the annual production reduce of rice caused by meteorological disasters in Jiangxi province was 1.629 million tons,equivalent to 0.31 million hmof rice planting area of production. Finally,according to the conclusion,some suggestions were put forward,like construction of high standard farmland,strengthening irrigation and water conservancy,road drainage equipment and infrastructure construction to achieve absolute returns,reasonable planning planting area of different season rice.

关 键 词：气象灾害 水稻 产量 灾损量 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：S511[农业科学—作物学] F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]