影响长江口深水航道骤淤的非常态天气过程Ⅱ:台风要素敏感性分析及典型台风路径  

The extraordinary weather process inducing sudden siltation in deepwater navigation channel of Yangtze Estuary Ⅱ: sensitivity analysis of typhoon parameters and its typical tracks

作　　者：贾晓 路川藤[3] 黄华聪[1] JIA Xiao LU Chuanteng HUANG Huacong(Shanghai Estuarine and Coastal Science Research Center,Shanghai 201201, China MOE Key Laboratory of Hydrodynamics, School of NAOCE, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China River and Harbor Engineering Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanfing 210029, China)

机构地区：[1]上海河口海岸科学研究中心,上海201201 [2]上海交通大学水动力学教育部重点实验室,上海200240 [3]南京水利科学研究院河流海岸研究所,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第5期439-444,共6页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金(41206072);2016年港口航道泥沙交通行业重点实验室开放基金(Yn216001)

摘　　要：为进一步研究台风中心气压、台风距离长江口距离(简称距离)、最大风速半径和移动风速4个典型参数对长江口航道骤淤的影响水平,采用正交试验方法,设计了64组典型试验工况,选择藤田-高桥圆形风场经验公式架构了台风场,然后采用SWAN模型模拟不同台风工况的波况,并计算牛皮礁站的波能。据波能的极差分析和方差分析,得出台风要素的敏感性次序。研究表明,长江口过境台风中,距离最敏感,而最大风速半径为较不敏感因素。选取主要的敏感性参数(距离、中心气压)为代表参数,概化移动风速和最大风速半径。在合理选取能够引起骤淤的临界波能的标准下,给出较易引发骤淤的典型包络线范围,为骤淤的预报提供了新的参考指标。To further identify the effects of four typical typhoon parameters, namely, central atmospheric pressure, distance from typhoon center to Yangtze Estuary, maximum wind radius and moving wind velocity on the sudden siltation of navigation channel in Yangzi Estuary, the orthogonal experimental design （ OED ） method is used to design 64 groups of typical working conditions. The wind filed is established with the empirical formula of Fujita- Takahashi circular wind filed, and SWAN model is used to simulate the wave conditions under different typhoon working conditions, by which the wave energy at NPJ station is calculated. The sensitivity sequence of the four parameters is then deduced according to the RA （ Range Analysis） and VA （ variance analysis） of wave energy. The study shows that in the typhoon passing through Yangtze Estuary, the distance is the most sensitive parameter and maximum wind radius is less sensitive. In this case, the two major sensitive parameters （distance and central pressure ） are taken as representative parameters, while moving wind speed and maximum wind radius are generalized. A typical envelope line is proposed based on a reasonable selection of the critical wave energy which is likely to cause sudden siltation, hence providing a novel reference to predict the sudden siltation.

关 键 词：长江口深水航道 骤淤 台风参数 敏感性分析 正交试验 极差分析 方差分析 台风典型路径 

分 类 号：TV148[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学] P732[天文地球—海洋科学]