“全面二孩”、人口年龄结构变动对住房消费的影响  

‘Universal two-child',the effect of demographic structure change on housing consumption

作　　者：顾和军[1,2] 周小跃 张晨怡 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093 [3]山东大学(威海)海洋学院,山东威海264209

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年第11期31-38,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"女性劳动参与;生育行为选择与人口红利:效应测度与政策含义"(批准号:71473128);国家社会科学基金项目"生育政策调整;住户规模效应与中国家庭收入不平等研究"(批准号:16BJL041);博士后特别资助项目"女性劳动参与;生育行为选择与经济增长"(批准号:2016T90435)

摘　　要：当前中国人口结构正在改变,"少子化"和"老龄化"问题逐渐凸显。"全面二孩"是生育政策调整和完善的重要一步,对未来中国经济和社会将产生深远影响。在政府颁布"全面二孩"政策的当下,探讨政策带来的人口结构变化,以及人口结构变化对我国住房消费的影响,具有重要的现实意义。通过对2010年第六次全国人口普查数据和《中国统计年鉴》2001—2016年数据的整理和比较,研究表明,"全面二孩"政策的实施会使少儿抚养比显著提升,老龄化程度得到一定减轻,但不能改变人口迅速老龄化的大趋势。通过采用滞后一期变量,利用动态面板广义矩估计方法(GMM)估计人口年龄结构对住房消费的影响。估算结果表明:人口年龄结构因素不能解释近年来中国房价的上涨,但能部分解释住房面积水平的变化;少儿抚养比的提高会显著降低住房消费面积,老年抚养比对住房消费面积没有明显影响。由于"全面二孩"的实施会提高少儿抚养比,因而从长期来看该政策的实施有利于降低商品房消费水平。从人口结构角度出发,未来我国房价不再具备快速上涨的需求基础。政府应当积极采取措施避免房地产市场的疲软对经济发展产生不利影响。我们可以完善养老保险体系,增加老年人的消费能力,将商品服务结构逐步向老年市场转移,大力发展高新技术产业来应对老龄化对住房和经济市场的冲击。Currently,Chinese population structure has been changing,the weaknesses of low birth rate and aging problem come out gradually.‘Universal two-child＇policy is an important step to adjust and perfect the childbearing policy,which will have revolutionary consequences.At the moment of the government publishing the policy of ‘universal two child＇,it has practical significance to explore the change of population structure brought by the policy and the effect of demographic change to Chinese housing consumption.Through coordinating and comparing the data of the sixth national census and China Statistical Yearbook from 2001 to 2016,the result shows that the implementation of ‘universal two child＇will raise the children＇dependency ratio significantly,and it also alleviate the aging process to a certain extent.It＇s a pity that it can not change the tendency of aging population.We use lagged variable and dynamic panel spacing estimation method（ GMM） to estimate the effect of population age structure to housing consume.The estimation results dedicate that the factor of population age structure can not explain the rise of Chinese house price,but it can explain the change of housing area partially.The increasing of children＇dependency ratio will lower the level of housing area significantly,but the old-age dependency ratio has no significant effect on the level of housing area.The implementation of‘universal two-child＇policy will raise the children＇dependency ratio,so it will lower the housing consumption in a long trend.From the view of population age structure,there is no demand basis of rapid growth on Chinese house price in the future.The government should take action actively to avoid the adverse effect of weak housing market on economic development.In recent years,the government has realized the importance of stimulating domestic demand,so we can complete the endowment insurance system,increase spending power of the old age,and transfer commodity service structure to the old market and strive

关 键 词：“全面二孩” 少儿抚养比 老年抚养比 住房消费 住房价格 

分 类 号：F241.23[经济管理—劳动经济]