木材物流运输量GM(1,1)预测程序的设计  

Design of GM(1,1) Forecasting Program for Wood Logistics

作　　者：薛朝升 汤锦茂 王冬招 邱荣祖 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学交通与土木工程学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《信息通信》2017年第8期51-53,共3页Information & Communications

基　　金：国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201710389036)-木材物流运输监管系统的设计;国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201710389026);全国高校物流教改教研课题(JZW2017087);福建省教育厅资助基金课题(JAT160179)

摘　　要：为了帮助基层林区政府更准确地预测木材运输量,研究了GM(1,1)模型的预测算法,发现其误差略大,离基准年份越远的预测值高于实际值的情况越严重。对其预测模型略做改进,将基准年份后移,降低了误差率。采用GM(1,1)和改进后GM(1,1)两种算法,分别对某县的木材物流量进行预测,和生产真实数据比较,改进后的GM(1,1)方法预测的最大相对误差为2.37%,精度有所提高。采用该模型计算量少,过程简单,精度高,可为县级基层林业局制作木材物流发展政策提供决策依据。In order to help the grassroots forest government to predict the timber traffic more accurately, the prediction algorithm of GM （1,1） model is studied and it is found that the error is slightly larger and the predicted value is farther from the base year than the actual value serious. The forecasting model is slightly improved, and the base year is shifted backward, which reduces the error rate. The GM （1,1） method and the GM （1,1） method are used to predict the wood flow rate of a county, and the real data of production is compared with that of the GM （1,1） method. The relative error is 2.37%, the accuracy is improved. The cal-culation method is simple, the process is simple and the precision is high, which can provide the decision basis for the develop-ment of timber logistics development policy at the county level grassroots forestry bureau.

关 键 词：木材物流 运输量 GM(1 1) 

分 类 号：TP277[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]