基于AHP和比较可能度关系的列控车载系统安全可靠性分析  

Reliability analysis for the on-board train control system based on the relation between AHP and the comparable degree possibility

作　　者：杨妮[1] 张友鹏[1] 王思华[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学自动化与电气工程学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2017年第5期1676-1680,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划项目(2015X007-H);中国铁路总公司科研项目(YS2016J-17)

摘　　要：列控车载系统是保证行车安全的重要系统,其对安全可靠性的要求极高。从人、机和环境3个方面,针对列控车载系统的特点,在分析列控车载系统各安全影响因素的基础上,利用层次分析法建立各影响因素间的关联关系,并充分考虑指标环境的不确定性和决策者思维的模糊性,构建三角模糊数互补判断矩阵。其次,运用三角模糊数比较可能度关系理论,集结所有指标比较的可能度,构建可能度关系比较矩阵。利用三角模糊数矩阵转换关系将可能度关系比较矩阵转换为模糊一致性判断矩阵,在此基础上求解各指标的各层单排序及总排序向量。最后,结合具体算例指出列控车载系统安全可靠性的关键影响因素,以及实际运行当中可能存在的问题并提出决策优化建议。This paper is aimed to propose a new approach to analyzing the factors affecting the reliability of the on-board train control system based on the relation between the analytic hierarchical process（ AHP） and the triangle fuzzy number possibility degree comparison. For the research purpose,we have first of all analyzed the influential factors of the reliability of the on-board train control system in terms of the relation among the human operator,the machine and the environmental influential factors on account of the characteristic features of the said control system. In view of the interactive relations among all the factors involved,we have established an evaluation index reliability system of the influential factors of the on-board train control in accordance with the AHP theory. As well,we have also constructed a triangular fuzzy number complementary evaluation matrix through a comparison between the two factors with each layer joined by the comments of the experts and the subjective and objective assessments of theanalysts in making the decision concerned. And,secondly,on the basis of the triangle fuzzy number comparison possibility degree relation theory,we have summed up all the possibility degree comparison relations of all the indexes so as to gain the possibility degree comparison matrix. Furthermore,based on the triangle fuzzy number matrix conversion relation,we have managed to transform the said possibility degree matrix into a fuzzy consistent assessment matrix and acquired the single ranking sort of each layer as well as the total weight ordering sort of each index.Thus,finally,when combined with the specific examples,we have pointed out the weights of all the indicative factors in the assessment system,arriving at the conclusion that the accident and the loss failure,the maintenance and the detection error,the natural disasters,the intentional damage,the operational errors,the system＇s own defects and the climatic environment should all serve as the influential factors affecting the reliabili

关 键 词：安全工程 可靠性 层次分析法 三角模糊数 可能度关系 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]