基于物元模型的不正常航班恢复策略评估  

Evaluation of abnormal flight recovery strategy based on matter element model

作　　者：万俊强 赵嶷飞 张敏 任新惠 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学天津市空管运行规划与安全技术重点实验室,天津300300

出　　处：《中国科技论文》2017年第19期2193-2197,共5页China Sciencepaper

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(U1433111)

摘　　要：为在协同决策(collaborative decision making,CDM)环境下对不正常航班恢复策略的可行性进行有效评估,从航空公司运控人员的角度出发,结合实际运行控制环境,利用物元模型分析方法,选取5个指标(机场安全程度、机组疲劳程度、成本、服务保障能力、延误时间)构建不正常航班的恢复策略评估特征指标体系。采用可拓关联函数及可拓评价方法确定模型中的指标权重,并以定量结果来确定恢复策略的可行性。通过实例仿真表明,该方法可以在CDM环境下对不正常航班恢复策略进行有效的评估,为运控人员提供科学高效的建议,保障航班安全高效的运行。In order to make sure that the collaborative decision making(CDM)under the environment of irregular flight recovery strategy is feasible for effective evaluation,the method of analyzing the matter-element model was employed to select five indicators,namely the airport security level,unit level of fatigue,cost,the service support capacity,and delay time to establish the irregular flight recovery strategy evaluation index system from the airline staff perspective and combined with the actual operation of the control environment.The characteristics and correlation function in extension theory and extension evaluation method were used to determine the index weight in the model and the quantitative results were used to determine the recovery.The simulation results showed that this method can be used to evaluate the abnormal flight recovery strategy in CDM environment and provide scientific and effective suggestions for the operators to ensure the safe and efficient operation of the flight.

关 键 词：航空运输 协同决策 不正常航班 恢复策略 物元模型 可拓评价方法 

分 类 号：F562[经济管理—产业经济]