福建省暴雨日动力因子统计特征及预报研究  

The statistical characteristics and prediction research of dynamic factors in rainstorm days

作　　者：吕思思[1] 官晓军[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省气象台,福建福州350001

出　　处：《环境与发展》2017年第9期182-183,185,共3页Environment & Development

摘　　要：本文利用FJ-WRF细网格再分析场格点资料计算所得暴雨动力因子(对流涡度矢量、湿热力平流参数)以及全省68个站24小时累积降水资料统计分析得出台风和非台风影响下福建省暴雨日动力因子特征。本研究目的意在发现暴雨发生时对应的福建各站点动力因子指标,以期找到一个定量阈值来判断暴雨的发生,从而利用细网格模式资料对未来发生的暴雨事件进行预报。在利用动力因子作为暴雨预报指标时,台风影响暴雨和非台风影响暴雨有所区别。若以14时作为预报时刻,无论是有台风还是无台风影响,暴雨发生的当天14时,对流涡度矢量与湿热力平流参数达到最大值,受台风影响暴雨情况下两个动力因子平均值较非台风影响大一些。若以20时作为预报时刻,受台风影响的暴雨,对于两个动力因子来说会提前一天出现最大值,在前一天20时出现极值。可以利用这一规律作为福建省暴雨将要发生的指标。By using FJ-WRF reanalysis data,dynamic factors（Convective vorticity vector and moist thermodynamics advection parameter）in rainstorm days are calculated.And with the 68 stations 24-hours cumulative precipitation in Fujian,it figures that there are some differences between typhoon effect and non-typhoon effect in dynamic factors in rainstorm days.The aim of this study is to find out the index of dynamic factors in rainstorm days in Fujian stations which can be used to determine the occurrence of rainstorm.The aim of this study is to find out the index of dynamic factors in rainstorm days in Fujian stations which can be used to determine the occurrence of rainstorm.The research indicates that if 14：00 in every day is the forecast time,convective vorticity vector and moist thermodynamics advection parameter reach the maximum value at 14：00 in rainstorm days,whether they are influenced by typhoon-effect or not.The value of the two dynamic factors by typhoon-effect is higher than by non-typhoon-effect.If20：00 in every day is the forecast time,convective vorticity vector and moist thermodynamics advection parameter reach the maximum value at 20：00 one day in advance of rainstorm days.This can be used as a forecast index in Fujian rainstorm

关 键 词：台风和非台风影响 暴雨日 动力因子 特征统计分析 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]