企业汇总会计盈余能有效预测未来通货膨胀吗?  

Can Aggregate Earnings Effectively Predict Future Inflation?

作　　者：罗宏[1] 方军雄[2] 曾永良[1] 周大伟[3] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学会计学院,邮政编码611130 [2]复旦大学管理学院,邮政编码20043 [3]东方证券股份有限公司,邮政编码200031

出　　处：《经济评论》2017年第6期148-162,共15页Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目"会计信息在宏观经济分析与预测中的应用价值及其实现方式研究"(项目编号:16AJY004)的资助

摘　　要：本文遵循刚刚兴起的"从微观数据到宏观预测"理论框架,研究上市公司披露的会计盈余信息与未来通货膨胀水平之间的关系。具体地,我们首先考察上市公司汇总会计盈余变化是否具有对未来CPI、PPI和RPI的预测能力,继而进一步考察股权分置改革和会计准则国际趋同是否影响汇总会计盈余的宏观决策价值。研究发现,汇总会计盈余变化能有效预测未来通货膨胀水平,并且对于不同通货膨胀指标其预测能力存在差异,这种预测效应在强制性制度变迁即股权分置改革和新会计准则实施以后更为明显。进一步研究发现,宏观经济分析师在预测未来通货膨胀时利用了企业汇总会计盈余信息。Following the micro to macro analysis paradigm,this paper examines whether aggregate earnings can effectively predict future inflation. Specifically,we firstly study the relationship between aggregate earnings change and future CPI,PPI and RPI. Then we examine the effect of mandatory institutional change（ i. e. the split-structure reform and international convergence of accounting standards） on the macro decision usefulness of accounting earnings. We find aggregate earnings growth is significantly related to future inflation,which is more pronounced after the mandatory institutional change,and the predictive ability of aggregate earnings change for future inflation is different among different inflation indicators. Our analyses also reveal that professional forecasters incorporate the information about future inflation contained in aggregate earnings.

关 键 词：汇总会计盈余 通货膨胀 制度环境 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]