计及不确定性和全寿命周期成本的配电变压器规划方法  

Planning Method of Distribution Transformer Considering Uncertainty and Life Cycle Cost

作　　者：杨楠[1] 李宏圣 袁景颜 黄芳 王璇[1] 黎索亚 

机构地区：[1]新能源微电网湖北省协同创新中心(三峡大学),湖北省宜昌市443002 [2]天津天大求实电力新技术股份有限公司,天津市300000 [3]中国大唐集团桂冠电力股份有限公司,广西壮族自治区南宁市530000

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2017年第21期94-104,共11页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51607104)~~

摘　　要：随着配电网中分布式电源规模日益扩大,在电力系统规划中进一步考虑不确定性因素的影响,同时精细化规划成本具有重要的现实意义。考虑到设备投资,提出了一种计及光伏出力不确定性和全寿命周期成本的配电变压器规划方法。首先,利用Cholesky分解的方法将具有相关性各随机变量历史数据转换为相互独立的样本以消除其相关性。然后,通过基于非参数核密度估计的建模方法确定光伏及负荷的概率分布,以此为基础,以机会约束理论实现配电变压器的不确定风险定容,同时引入三点估计法计算配电网概率潮流确定其负载损耗。最后,构建出基于全寿命周期理论的不确定性配电变压器选型模型并利用粒子群优化算法进行求解。算例仿真验证了所述模型的合理性,同时结果表明,所提方法能有效弥补配电变压器定容与选型的界限,更为精细化地量度其寿命周期内的成本,提升了配电变压器规划的经济性。With the increasing scale of distributed generator supplied in the distribution network,it is of great significance to take into account the uncertain factors seriously and make a refined budget in planning.A planning method of distribution transformer considering its life cycle cost and the uncertainty output of photovoltaic generation is proposed.Firstly,Cholesky decomposition method is used to remove the correlation of historical data in each of the random variables.Secondly,the probability distribution of photovoltaic and load is determined by the modeling method of nonparametric kernel density estimation.At the same time,a method is presented to select the appropriate capacity of transformer risks based on the chance constraint theory.And then the three-point estimation method is proposed to calculate the probability flow of the distribution network.Finally,an uncertainty distribution transformer planning model based on life cycle theory is constructed and solved by the particle swarm optimization algorithm.The example shows the method proposed in this paper is reasonable.The simulation results show that it can effectively compensate for the boundary in capacity and model selection of distribution transformer.The life cost cycle of the distribution transformer has been made more refined,improving the economy of the distribution planning.

关 键 词：分布式电源 CHOLESKY分解 机会约束 三点估计法 全寿命周期 

分 类 号：TM421[电气工程—电器]