P2P网贷债权市场中违约舆情的传染机制  

The Contagion Mechanism of Default Public Opinion in P2P Network Lending Creditor's Rights Market

作　　者：王书斌[1] 谭中明[1] 陈艺云[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学财经学院 [2]华南理工大学经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《金融论坛》2017年第11期56-69,共14页Finance Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(16BGL049;15BJY149);国家教育部青年基金项目(14YJC790106)

摘　　要：本文基于传染病模型,分析P2P债权转让模式和违约舆情传染机制,并进行模拟仿真。结果发现,当转让债权人传染再生数超过阀值时,P2P恐慌情绪传染将始终存在,并导致P2P平台陷入危机。当债权市场转让标受网络舆情影响急剧上升时,情绪传染时间将会缩短,债权市场中的转让标存量将会倍增,导致债权市场功能丧失,并陷入危机。Based on the infectious disease model, the contagion mechanism of default public opinion, the authors of this paper analyze the pattern of credit assignment and and present a simulation. The results of the paper show that the P2P panic contagion will always exist and P2P platform will be in crisis if the contagion regeneration number of the assignor of creditor＇s rights is more than the threshold. The emotional contagion time will be shortened when the assignment of the creditor＇s rights market rises markedly due to the influence of the network public opinion, and the assignment stock of the market will be doubled, which results in the loss of creditor market function and the crisis.

关 键 词：P2P网贷 债权转让 违约风险 传染病模型 传染机制 

分 类 号：C912.63[经济管理] F724.6[社会学] F832.4