消费信贷期限结构效应与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于结构VAR和结构断点检验  

An Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Term Structure Effect of Consumer Credit and Economic Growth——Based on Structural VAR and Structural Break Point Test

作　　者：朱加林[1] 秦新龙 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学金融学院,安徽蚌埠233000

出　　处：《江南大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2017年第6期98-106,共9页Journal of Jiangnan University：Humanities & Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：安徽财经大学2016年研究生科研创新基金项目(ACYC2016064)

摘　　要：扩大消费是促进经济增长的动力源泉,文章采用结构VAR模型对2007-2016年季度数据进行实证分析,考察消费信贷期限结构与经济增长间的关系,研究得出以下结论:(1)长期消费贷款的增加有助于经济增长,短期消费贷款对经济的促进作用并不明显,且长期消费贷款对经济增长的贡献度远大于短期消费贷款;(2)经济增长对长短期消费信贷总量的拉动力均不强;(3)2009年第三季度是我国消费信贷发展的最显著的节点。最后,文章针对目前国内消费金融的发展状况提出相应的政策建议。The expansion of consumption is the source of power to promote economic growth.This paper uses the SVAR model to conduct an empirical analysis on quarterly data of 2007-2016,so as to explore the relationship between term structure of consumption credit and economic growth.The study concludes:(1)The increase of long-term consumption loans contributes to economic growth,while the promotion effect of short-term consumption loans on the economy is not obvious,and the contribution of long-term loan consumption to economic growth is far greater than that of short-term consumption loans;(2)The pulling force of economic growth to short and long period consumption credit is not strong;(3)The third quarter of 2009is the most significant node in the development of China's consumer credit.Finally,according to the present situation of domestic consumer finance,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.

关 键 词：消费信贷 结构VAR 断点检验 经济增长 

分 类 号：F830.5[经济管理—金融学]