双对数非线性模型在国内旅游需求影响因素分析中的应用  

The Application of Double Logarithmic Nonlinear Model in Influencing Factors Analysis of Domestic Tourism Demand

作　　者：程丹 刘利斌 

机构地区：[1]广西师范学院旅游学院,广西南宁530001 [2]广西师范学院数学与统计科学学院,广西南宁530299

出　　处：《铜仁学院学报》2017年第12期107-111,共5页Journal of Tongren University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(11761015);广西自然科学基金(2017GXNSFBA198183)

摘　　要：为了刻画影响因素之间的交互作用对国内旅游需求的影响,选取了2000-2015年共16年的面板数据,构建了一个双对数非线性模型。对该模型进行了相关检验分析,结果表明,国内人均GDP和全国城乡居民年底存款的交互作用对旅游需求人数有积极的影响,而不可抗力、全国城乡居民年底存款和全国旅客周转量的交互作用对全国国内旅游人数起消极影响。造成全国城乡居民年底存款和全国旅客周转量的交互作用与国内旅游人数呈负相关的原因主要是因为全国私家车保有量迅速增加和自驾游的蓬勃发展。In order to draw the interaction relationship between influencing factors, the panel data of 2000-2015 are selected to construct a double logarithmic nonlinear regress model for China’s domestic tourism demand. Through the related model test and analysis, the result shows that the interaction of domestic per capita GDP and the urban and rural residents’ annual deposit has positive influence on domestic tourism demand, while force majeure and the interaction of the urban and rural residents’ annual deposit and the national passenger turnover have negative influence on it. It’s found that there are two reasons bringing the negative relationship between domestic tourism demand and the interaction of the urban and rural residents’ annual deposit and the national passenger turnoverin this paper： one is the rapid increasing volume of private car ownership; and the other is the vigorous development of domestic self-driving travels.

关 键 词：国内旅游需求 双对数非线性模型 影响因素 自驾游 

分 类 号：F925.7[经济管理] O29[理学—应用数学]