基于Apriori算法的易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故关键致险因素的挖掘  

Excavation of key risk factors based on Apriori algorithm for fire and explosion in storage and transportation of hazardous chemicals

作　　者：陈伟珂[1] 张欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院,天津300384

出　　处：《火灾科学》2017年第3期133-139,共7页Fire Safety Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71173152);天津市科技计划项目(15ZCZDSF00400)

摘　　要：导致易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故的因素繁多、关系复杂,挖掘关键致险因素是减少管理成本、提高防控效率的关键。研究了200例事故等级为较大事故以上的易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故的原因,采用事故树分析法建立易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故树,并运用频度统计法遴选出致险因素;在此基础上,建立基于Apriori算法的关联规则模型进行数据挖掘,共得到14个关键致险因素。通过对关键致险因素与易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故之间关联规则的分析表明,关键致险因素与事故之间存在强关联规则,单一关键致险因素或其组合的存在必将导致事故的发生,为实现危险化学品储运精准化安全管理提供参考。There are various causes for the accidents associated with the storage and transportation of flammable and explosive hazardous chemicals, and thus extraction of key risk factors is essential for reduction of management costs and improvement of accident prevention and control. In this paper, more than 200 accidents are studied, for which the fault tree analysis method is used to establish the accident tree, and 24 risk factors are extracted using the measure of frequency statistics method. The key risk factors are found through the establishment of association rules based on Apriori algorithm for data mining, and the association between the accident and the key risk factors are obtained. The results show that there is a strong association rules between the key risk factors and the accident of hazardous chemicals storage and transportation. In addition, the existence of a single key risk factor or combination of them will greatly improve the probability of accident occurrence. The results provide reference for safety management of storage and transportation of hazardous chemicals.

关 键 词：易燃易爆化学品 储运 火灾爆炸事故 风险因素 APRIORI算法 关联规则 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X932