城市规模、网络结构与交通拥堵的关系研究——基于动态性拓展的宏观网络交通模型的解释  

The Research on the Relationship between City Scale,Network Structure and Traffic Congetion

作　　者：刘建朝 王亚男[2] 王振坡 宋顺锋 

机构地区：[1]天津城建大学经济与管理学院,天津300384 [2]中国城市科学研究会,北京100835 [3]内华达大学经济系,89557

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2017年第11期101-110,共10页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(14BJY043);国家社科基金项目(13BJY054);"十二五"天津市高等学校创新团队培养计划(TD12-5063);天津社科基金项目(TJLJ15-007);天津市普通高校人文社科重点研究基地开放基金项目(KFJJ17-01)

摘　　要：中国城市已经进入整体性交通拥堵时代,对城市规模、网络拓扑和交通控制的合理建模将有助于治理交通拥堵。拓展了城市规模下的宏观网络交通模型,弥补了传统模型的缺陷,发展了交通拥堵指数模型,采用分位数回归实证检验了城市规模、网络结构与交通拥堵的关系。研究表明:车辆保有量、交通密度与土地利用程度(街区密度)密切相关,并影响土地和网络资源的变化或区域间的再分配;拓展到城市规模下宏观网络交通模型后,每条道路的拥堵程度与城市规模成正比。人口对大城市交通拥堵越具有显著正向作用,但小城市人口的适度集聚对交通拥堵有一定的缓解作用;建设用地对交通拥堵极为敏感,城市规模越小灵敏度越高,其中交通用地的增加将直接增强交通系统的承载能力;道路面积与城市交通拥堵保持正向关系;与此相反,城市道路里程对交通拥堵的作用始终为负,说明加密城市网络结构对交通拥堵治理意义更大。Chinese cities have entered the era of the overall traffic congestion and modeling the city size, network topology and traffic control reasonably will help to control traffic congestion. This article expanded the Macroscopic-Network Traffic Models in the perspective of city size, made up the defect of the traditional models, developed of traffic congestion index model, used the quantile regression empirically analyzed the relationship of city scale, network structure and traffic Congestion. The research has shown that car ownership in area, traffic density and degree of land use density （block） closely linked, and affect the land and the change of the network resources or regional redistribution. Expanded to the city scale macro network traffic model, each road congestion degree is proportional to the city size. Population has significant positive effect to the big city traffic congestion, but little moderate concentration of urban population to alleviate traffic congestion has certain action in small cities. Construction land for traffic congestion is very sensitive, the smaller the city sensitivity is higher, with the increase of traffic land will directly enhance the bearing capacity of traffic system; Road area keep positive relationship with urban traffic congestion. By contrast, the urban road mileage always is negative, which means that encryption city network structure have a greater significance to traffic congestion management. The conclusion based on the traffic function of land allocation optimization, the traffic control in city border, improve the traffic capacity of existing road, strengthen community density （such as network connectivity） provides evidence for the traffic congestion.

关 键 词：城市规模 网络结构 交通拥堵 宏观网络交通模型 分位数回归 

分 类 号：F511.99[经济管理—产业经济]