海外勘探新项目的经济评价方法发展与应用  

The development and application of economic evaluation methods for the new exploration projects abroad

作　　者：徐宁 史卜庆 赖泽武 王青[2] 许小勇 宋阳 

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气勘探开发公司 [2]中国石油勘探开发研究院 [3]中国石油杭州地质研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2017年第11期66-73,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：目前海外勘探新项目评价主要采用折现现金流法,该方法属于确定性的经济评价方法,难以充分体现并规避勘探项目的诸多风险因素和不确定性,影响最终投资决策。结合以往在勘探项目评价过程中遇到的问题,建立了充分考虑勘探项目勘探程度、地质风险和商业风险的系统评价体系和投资决策评判指标。对于中-高勘探程度的项目,将期望经济价值法/决策树法作为勘探新项目主要的评价方法;对于勘探程度特别低、战略性、前沿性的风险勘探项目,通过构建风险系数矩阵以地质评价为主。Discounted cash flow always acted as the main evaluation method for the new exploration projects abroad. However, it is difficult to fully reflect and mitigate the risk and uncertainties related to the exploration projects, which will affect the final investment decision. Considering the problems encountered in the past exploration project evaluation, a comprehensive evaluation system and investment decision criteria have been established, which fully consider the exploration degree, geological risk and commercial risk of exploration projects. With respect to the medium-high exploration projects, the Expected Monetary Value/Decision Tree method is expected to be the main evaluation method. For the low exploration degree, strategic and frontier high risk exploration projects that can adopt the geological evaluation based on the risk coefficient matrix.

关 键 词：海外勘探项目 经济评价 折现现金流法 期望经济价值法 决策树 地质风险评价 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]