中国教育现代化发展的总体趋势和挑战  

General Trends and Challenges of Educational Modernization in China

作　　者：马晓强 崔吉芳 刘大伟 何春 赵子莹 马筱琼 李锋亮 赵琦 王颖喆 陈佳鹏 康世联 祝新宇 田凤 魏轶娜 张臻 金龙 

出　　处：《教育研究》2017年第11期18-27,共10页Educational Research

基　　金：中国教育科学研究院2016年度基本科研业务费专项资金课题“2030年中国教育发展预测分析”(课题批准号:GYG12016004)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：基于当前中国人口、经济和教育发展现状,建立多种模型对我国教育现代化发展主要指标进行预测分析。结果表明,2030年后我国将全面普及各级教育;教育投入稳定增长,义务教育师资水平进一步提升,教育基尼系数持续降低;教育将成为人力资源增长的主要因素,对经济增长的贡献作用明显加强。面向未来,我国教育现代化发展面临着挑战。建议加快推进教育供给侧结构性改革,办好优质公平教育,统筹城乡教育协调发展,提高教育服务经济社会发展的能力和水平,为推进教育现代化目标奠定坚实基础。Based on the current situation of population, economic and social development, the indicators of educational development in 2030 are forecasted and analyzed by models. It demonstrates that by 2030 all levels of education will be comprehensively popularized, meanwhile, education input will increase steadily, the qualification of teachers in compulsory education keep promoted, the education Gini reduce continuously, and education become the key aspect of human capital increase which significantly contributes to the economy development. Our modernization are still facing some challenges in the future. Therefore, accelerating educational supply-side structural reform, coordinating development of urban and rural education and promoting the ability of serving the economy are highly recommended. Raising equitable and qualified education will build a solid foundation of education modernization.

关 键 词：教育发展 教育预测 教育现代化 

分 类 号：G521[文化科学—教育学]