基于改进ARMA模型的电离层球谐模型系数预报  

Coefficients Forecast of Ionospheric Spherical Harmonic Function Model Based on Improved ARMA Model

作　　者：刘聪[1] 刘海颖[1] 李俊义[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学航天学院,江苏南京210016 [2]国家测绘地理信息局第一大地测量队,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《测绘地理信息》2017年第6期25-28,共4页Journal of Geomatics

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2015097);航空科学基金资助项目(2015085013)

摘　　要：根据电离层球谐函数模型系数的特点以及各系数的重要性,采用改进ARMA模型对其13个系数进行预报。结果表明,基于新模型,将13个预报参数得到的电离层电子含量与欧洲定轨中心生成的电离层含量产品相比,预报精度能达到6TECU,而在中国区域精度则更高,能到达4TECU。选取10个IGS站做单频动态解算,水平方向精度与Klobuchar模型相当,高程方向则略高于Klobuchar模型,改进精度可达15%。According to the characteristics of the coefficients of ionosphere spherical harmonic function model and the importance of each coefficient,we forecast 13 coefficients with the improved ARMA model.Results show that TEC（total electron content）accuracy based on our predicted coefficients,compared to CODE GIM model,can reach 6 TECU globally and 4 TECU in China region.Furthermore,we choose 10 IGS stations to make dynamic solution of single frequency,the accuracy can achieve the similar horizontal accuracy as Klobuchar model,and the height component is improved by15% compared to Klobuchar model.

关 键 词：球谐函数 总电子含量 自回归滑动平均模型 电离层预报 

分 类 号：P228.41[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]