高等教育人力资本对人口城镇化的门槛效应研究  

The Threshold Effect of the Higher Education Human Capital on Population Urbanization

作　　者：穆怀中[1] 王珍珍[2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学人口研究所,辽宁沈阳110036 [2]辽宁大学经济学院,辽宁沈阳110036

出　　处：《人口与发展》2017年第6期2-13,共12页Population and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"养老保险缴费率一元化与适度水平研究"(71373110);国家自然科学基金"机关事业单位‘并轨’养老保险缴费适度水平及总资金平衡研究"(71573112)阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：促进高等教育人力资本积累,发挥其"第二人口红利"优势,是新常态下实现主动、包容性人口城镇化的重要动力。采用面板门槛模型从城市住房价格与劳动力市场分割视角,考察高等教育人力资本对人口城镇化的门槛效应。研究发现:高等教育人力资本对人口城镇化的影响存在基于城市住房价格和劳动力市场分割的双重门槛。其中,高等教育人力资本对人口城镇化的正向促进作用存在一个合理的住房价格区间,价格偏低或过高会造成高等教育人力资本供给不足或过剩,均不利于当地人口城镇化发展;源于市场内生性的劳动力市场分割具有人力资本筛选效应,增强了高等教育人群进入主要劳动力市场的优势,有利于高等教育人力资本对人口城镇化作用的发挥。因此,应通过加大高等教育投资,完善住房保障机制,促进人才自由流动等举措,推动人口城镇化发展。Promote accumulation of higher education human capital, take advantage of the＂ second demographic dividend＂, is the important power to realize active and inclusive population urbanization under the background of the new normal. Article using panel threshold model examines the threshold effect of the higher education human capital on population urbanization from the perspective of house price and labor market segmentation. Study found that： the higher education human capital exist double threshold effect for population urbanization based on the house price and labor market segmentation. The higher education human capital has a positive promoting effect to population urbanization in a reasonable housing price range, price too low or too high will cause the high human capital shortage or surplus, are not conducive to local population urbanization; market with endogenous screening effect of human capital, promote the higher education crowd into the primary labor market, is conducive to population urbanization. In order to promote the population urbanization development, we should constantly increase higher education investment, improve the housing safeguard mechanism and promote the talent flow freely move.

关 键 词：高等教育人力资本 人口城镇化 住房价格 劳动力市场分割 

分 类 号：F06[经济管理—政治经济学]