水文频率分析计算研究——以郁江南宁站为例  

Study on hydrological frequency analysis and calculation

作　　者：杜懿[1] 麻荣永[1] 赵立亚 

机构地区：[1]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,南宁530004

出　　处：《广西水利水电》2017年第6期12-15,共4页Guangxi Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学项目(51369005);广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室系统性研究项目(2013ZDX04)

摘　　要：以郁江南宁站1943~1990年的历年最大流量、最高水位资料为基础,进行了水文极值的频率分析计算研究。分别采用矩法、权函数法、概率权重矩法和线性矩法4种数理统计方法,并以离差平方和最小、离差绝对值和最小及相对离差平方和最小3个准则作为统计参数计算结果的评价标准。结果表明,在年最大流量和年最高水位的频率分析计算中概率权重矩法均表现最好,权函数法和矩法各有优劣、相差不大,线性矩法表现最差。针对南宁站的水文频率统计参数计算问题,建议优先选用概率权重矩法。Based on the maximum flow and maximum level records of Nanning Hydrological Station within the period from 1943 to 1990, the authors studied the frequency analysis and calculation of hydrological extremum by moment method, weight function method, probability weighted moment method and L-moments method. Three criteria of evaluating statistical parameter calculation results include the minimum sum of squares of deviations, the minimum sum of absolute values of deviations, the minimum sum of squares of relative deviations. The results of study demonstrate that probability weighted moment method is the best for frequency analysis of annual maximum flow and annual maximum level; weight function method and moment method have their own advantages and disadvantages without great difference; L-moments method is the worst. Probability weighted moment method is recommended for the calculation of hydrological frequency statistical parameters at Nanning Hydrological Station.

关 键 词：水文频率 参数估计 矩法 权函数 概率权重矩 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] TV121.7[水利工程—水文学及水资源]