金砖五国人口因素对CO_2排放影响研究  

Study of Population Factor of BRICS on Carbon Dioxide Emission

作　　者：郭名媛[1] 王亚楠 Guo Mingyuan;Wang Yanan(College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, Chin)

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《甘肃科学学报》2017年第6期131-135,共5页Journal of Gansu Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(14CTJ012)

摘　　要：基于STIRPAT模型,运用1995—2013年时间序列数据,研究中国、巴西、印度、俄罗斯、南非五个金砖国家的人口因素对CO_2排放的影响。其中人口因素主要包括劳动力比率、预期寿命、生育率和人口规模。从实证结果来看,人口因素对CO_2排放的影响存在差异;劳动力比率对CO_2排放的影响在中国、巴西、印度和南非是正向的,但是在俄罗斯是不显著的;南非和俄罗斯的人口预期寿命对CO_2排放的影响是不显著的,而巴西、中国、印度的人口预期寿命都对CO_2排放具有显著的正向作用;巴西的生育率对CO_2排放的影响是不显著的,印度和南非的生育率对CO_2排放具有显著的负向影响,中国和俄罗斯的生育率对CO_2排放都存在正向的影响;人口规模对CO_2排放的影响在中国、巴西、印度、南非是正向的,而在俄罗斯是负向的。因此,金砖国家应该根据国情,有差别地制定减排措施,同时应该加强金砖国家间合作,促进碳减排。Based on STIRPAT model,it researched population factor of BRICS which are China,Brazil,India,Russia and South Africa on carbon dioxide emission from 1995 to 2013.Among them,population factor mainly includes labor force rate,expected life,fertility and population size.From real result of all BRICS,there is difference among population factors on carbon dioxide emission.The effect of labor force rate on carbon dioxide emission is positive in China,Brazil,India and South Africa,while not apparent in Russia.Life expectancy effect in Russia and South Africa on carbon dioxide emission is not apparent,and Life expectancy effect in Brazil,China and India on carbon dioxide emission is positive.The fertility in Brazil has little effect on carbon dioxide emission,while apparent negative in India and South Africa,positive in China and Russia.The effect of population size on carbon dioxide emission in China,Brazil,India and South Africa is positive,and negative in Russia.So,all BRICS should make emission reduction measures according to their own conditions and strengthen cooperation for carbon emission reduction.

关 键 词：金砖五国 STIRPAT模型 人口因素 碳排放 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]