生态足迹与工业经济增长交互影响研究  

Research on the Interaction Effect of Ecological Footprint and Industry Growth

作　　者：田贵良[1] 伏洋成 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院

出　　处：《生态经济》2018年第1期65-69,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于粮食安全的虚拟水贸易对气候变化动态响应与调整”(41471456);中央科研业务费项目“虚拟水贸易对缺水地区农业供给结构优化的驱动研究”(2017B32214)

摘　　要：生态环境为工业经济发展提供物质基础和污染承载，同时，工业经济发展也对生态环境产生影响，后者即为生态足迹。以往研究更多关注两者间的静态联系，没有考虑到脉冲或滞后影响。文章使用脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解来描述江苏省人均生态足迹与工业发展之间的动态影响关系。研究结果表明，产业发展的波动在第一期就受到自身波动的影响，生态足迹对产业发展的影响在第二期才显现出来，此后趋于稳定。而生态足迹从第一期就受到自身波动和产业发展冲击的影响，受产业发展的影响在第一期较弱，此后总体呈上升趋势并趋于稳定。The ecological environment provides the material basis and contamination bearing for industrial economic development, while the industrial economic development also had an impact on the ecological environment, which is called the ecological footprint. Previous studies are more concerned about the static contact between the two, and they did not take into account the pulse or delayed effects. This study uses the impulse response function and variance decomposition to describe the dynamic effects between ecological footprint per capita of Jiangsu Province and industrial development. The results show that fluctuations in the first phase of industrial development will be affected by fluctuations in itself, while the effect of ecological footprint on industrial development will be revealed in the second period. After that, it will be stabilizing. Meanwhile, ecological footprint from the first phase will be affected by its own volatility and industrial development impact, and the impact by industrial development in the first period is weak, thereafter it shows an overall upward trend and then become stabilized.

关 键 词：产业发展 生态足迹 向量自回归 广义脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：X820.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F427[经济管理—产业经济]