供给侧改革背景下我国玉米价格走势预测  

Prediction of the Corn Price in China under the Background of Supply-side Reform

作　　者：韩振 杨春[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2017年第11期99-102,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2017-01);中国农业科学院基本科研业务费专项(Y2016ZK21);国家自然科学基金项目"草原生态保护补奖政策效应研究"(71503251);国家牧草产业技术体系专项资金(CARS-35-22)

摘　　要：本文对玉米价格的相关文献进行综述,分析了近年来我国玉米生产及价格的变动,并进一步运用ARIMA模型对未来玉米价格进行预测。研究结果显示:供给侧改革背景下,我国玉米产能已逐步调减,玉米价格开始逐步回升,预计未来,短期内玉米价格会小幅上涨,但仍低于上年同期,长期内玉米价格会有明显的回升趋势。This article summarizes the relevant literature on corn prices, analyzes the changes in corn production and prices in recent years, and fur- ther forecasts the future corn prices by using the ARIMA model. The results show that under the background of supply-side reform, China＇s corn production capacity has been gradually reduced. The prices of corn began to gradually rise. In the future, the price of corn will rise slightly in the short run, but it is still lower than the same period of last year. In the long run, there will be a clear upward trend of maize price.

关 键 词：玉米价格 玉米产量 供给侧改革 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]