居住小区开放对周边路网交通状态的影响研究  

Research on the influence of the opening of residential district on the traffic state of the surrounding road network

作　　者：刘婉 曲大义[1] 刘佳楠 张孝伍 丁海健 LIU Wan;QU Da-yi;LIU Jia-nan;ZHANG Xiao-wu;DING Ha-ian(School of Automobile and Transportation, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266520, Chin)

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学汽车与交通学院,青岛266520

出　　处：《青岛理工大学学报》2018年第1期96-101,共6页Journal of Qingdao University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51678320);山东省本科高校教学改革研究面上项目(2015M091);山东省教育科学"十二五"规划2015年度高等教育学科教学专项课题(CBS15010)

摘　　要：针对小区开放对路网交通状态产生影响这一问题,引入"路网极限承载容量"概念,并构造道路交通流量、周边道路的路网密度、行车速度3项指标体系进行研究.通过构建路网交通流的多元回归预测模型,对某小区未开放状态的路网极限承载容量进行预测衡量并与实际开放数据进行比较,论证了小区开放合理性.案例分析四类不同类型的小区,并拟合其对应的多元线性回归方程,验证模型合理性并进行预测,阐述各类小区是否适合开放及产生影响的情况,从交通分析的角度向城市规划等相关部门提出关于小区开放的相关建议.In order to research the influence on the surrounding road network opened in the residential districts,the ultimate traffic network capacity is studied.The three indexes as road traffic flow,traffic density and driving speed are established.Based on the models of a multiple regression about traffic flow in road network,the ultimate traffic network capacity under the non-opening residential districts is predicted.In comparison with the actual data,the rationality of plot is proved.With the analysis of the four different types of residential district,the corresponding multiple linear regression equation is fitted to verify the rationality of the model and to predict the suitability of various types of residential district opening and their impacts.In the view of traffic analysis,a strategy for the residential district opening is proposed,and a better policy decision in city planning can be made.

关 键 词：路网交通状态 多元回归分析 小区开放 路网极限承载容量 网络流 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]