基于因素分析法的常见慢性非传染性疾病史对患脑卒中风险的影响  

The Effects the History of Familiar Chronic Diseases Without Infectivity Have on the Risk of Having Stroke Based on the Factor Analysis

作　　者：包研科 王甜甜 程奇峰 张利民 赵志峰 郭嗣琮 冯亮[3] 景凯[3] 张大义[3] BAO Yan-ke;WANG Tian-tian;CHENG Qi-feng;ZHANG Li-mini;ZHAO Zhi-feng;FENG Liang;JING Kai;ZHANG Da-yi(Institute of Intelligent Engineering and Mathematics, Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin 123000, China;Research and Development Center, China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Beijing 100076, China;Fuxin Mining Group General Hospital, Fuxin 123000, China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学智能工程与数学研究院 [2]中国运载火箭技术研究院研发中心 [3]辽宁省阜新矿业集团总医院

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2017年第21期195-206,共12页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：辽宁省自然科学基金项目(2015020570);国家自然科学基金(61304090)

摘　　要：为分析慢性非传染性疾病史对患脑卒中风险的影响,调查了辽宁省阜新市农村地区年龄在35岁以上居民的流行病学特征,基于基线调查的数据,选取合适的变量,在明确变量的特征形态基础上分析变量之间的关联性并进行降维.采用10-折交叉验证的方式,针对相容的数据,运用一种智能推理算法——因素分析法.提取推理规则,将在不同测试集上得到的10组推理规则进行综合,从而得出最终的推理语句,最后在测试集上计算其正确率.经分析可知有高血压家族史、高血脂史、冠心病史或糖尿病史均会增大患脑卒中的风险.父亲有高血压则其患脑卒中的几率增大;在仅母亲有高血压的情况下,年龄较大的人更易患脑卒中;兄弟姐妹有高血压,其患脑卒中的几率不大.有高血脂史的人患脑梗塞的几率更大.To analyze the effects the history of familiar chronic diseases without infectivity have on the risk of having stroke, a resident group of individuals aged older than 35 in the countryside of Fuxin city, Liaoning province were investigated. Based on the baseline data, se- lect the appropriate factors, analyze the correlation between the factors and reduce dimensions after knowing their features. Using 10-fold cross-validation, an intelligent inference algorithm ---- factor analysis, is applied to compatible data to get the inference rules. Then combining the 10 group of inference rules gotten based on different training data together so that the final inference rules can be available and the accuracy on the test data are calculated. After being analyzed, it is known that having family history of hypertension, history of hyperlipi- demia, history of coronary heart disease or history of diabetes can increase the risk of having stroke; If the father has hypertension, then the rate of having stroke will increase. If only the mother has hypertension, then the older will have higher rate of having stroke. If brothers or sisters have hypertension, then the rate of having stroke is not too high. People with the history of hyperlipidemia have higher rate of having cerebral infraction.

关 键 词：脑卒中 关联性 因素分析 交叉验证 

分 类 号：R743.3[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学]