三江平原建三江垦区降水时空特征分析  

Analysis on the Spatial-Temporal Feature of Precipitation in Jiansanjiang Reclamation Area of Sanjiang Plain

作　　者：邢贞相 刘美鑫 付强 李衡 闫丹丹 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学水利与土木工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [2]黑龙江省粮食产能提升协同创新中心,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [3]黑龙江省高校节水农业重点实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2017年第5期892-904,共13页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51109036;51179032);黑龙江省自然科学基金(E2015024);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20112325120009);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301096);黑龙江省级领军人才梯队后备带头人资助项目(500001);黑龙江省水利厅科技开发项目(201402);东北农业大"学术骨干"资助项目(16XG11)

摘　　要：降水作为描述气候变化的关键指标之一,其分布规律对研究气候变化规律、减少洪涝灾害的损失、提高降水预测能力均有着重大意义.为揭示三江平原建三江垦区降水量的变化规律,基于垦区30年(1981~2010)的月降水量,采用线性趋势分析法对年降水量和季节降水量的变化趋势进行分析,并采用MannKendall(M-K)突变检验法对年降水量时间序列和季节降水量时间序列的突变特征进行分析,最后运用克里格插值对年降水量和季节降水量的空间变异特征进行剖析.研究结果表明:(1)线性趋势分析显示,对于研究区域的年降水量,总体上呈减少的趋势,且年际变化较显著;对于各季节降水量,夏季和秋季降水量呈显著的下降趋势,而冬季降水量上升趋势显著,春季基本无趋势变化;(2)M-K突变分析显示,年降水量总体无明显突变点,但1981~1999年间年降水量有微弱的上升趋势,1999年以后年降水量下降趋势明显;而该区域年际间各季降水突变点较多,说明季节降水量年际变化显著;(3)空间分析结果显示,建三江垦区年降水量空间变化规律由西南至东北呈逐渐增加的趋势,其中秋季和冬季降水量的空间变化规律与年降水量变化具有很好的一致性,尤其是秋季降水量具有明显的空间差异特征,但春季和夏季降水量空间差异变化相对较小.Precipitation is one of the key factors to characteristics of precipitation can provide describe climate change. Catching the changing significant references for research on climate changing, decreasing disaster damage of flood and improving the accuracy of the rainfall forecasting. In order to figure out the changing rule of the precipitation, based on the monthly precipitation data of 30 years （1981 -2010） in Jiansanjiang reclamation area, the change trends of annual and seasonal precipitation were analyzed by a linear regression method, mutation characteristics of annual and seasonal precipitation were analyzed by the Mann- Kendall（M-K） test, and the spatial variation characteristics was carried out on annual and seasonal precipitation by the Kriging interpolation. The results showed that ： （ 1 ） In the whole, the annual precipitation in Jiansanjiang reclamation area showed a decreasing trend and there was a significant difference between inter-annual precipitation; For seasonal precipitation, it showed an obvious downtrend in summer and autumn and uptrend in winter however, almost no variation in spring;（2） The M-K mutation analysis showed that there was no obvious mutation point in the whole annual precipitation series, however, it showed a slight upward trend in the annual precipitation subsequence from the year 1981 to 1999, but it began to descend obviously after the year 1999; there were many mutation points in the seasonal precipitation series,which indicated that the seasonal precipitation varied significantly, and it declined more obviously in summer and autumn ; （3） The spatial variation analysis showed there was an increasing trend in the annual precipitation series from the southwest to the northeast in the Jiansanjiang reclamation area, and the spatial variation characteristics of autumn and winter are well consistent with the annual precipitation, especially the autumn precipitation has obvious significant spatial differences, however there was weak variation relatively in s

关 键 词：建三江垦区 降水量 趋势分析 突变分析 空间分析 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]