以旅游功能为主的城市轨道交通线路客流预测方法  

Research on Passenger Flow Forecasting Method of Tourism-oriented Unban Rail Transit Line

作　　者：郭旭东 刘永平[1] 王远回[1] 

机构地区：[1]深圳市城市交通规划设计研究中心有限公司,深圳工程师518021

出　　处：《城市轨道交通研究》2018年第1期49-52,共4页Urban Mass Transit

摘　　要：以深圳轨道交通8号线为例,分析了以旅游功能为主的轨道交通线路的客流特征。针对旅游客流特征,改进了传统的城市轨道交通客流预测方法,利用RP/SP(显示偏好/陈述偏好)调查等手段,提出建立旅游客流预测模型的方法。此方法改变了以往只预测各个预测年限工作日客流数据的惯例,提出针对淡季和旺季的工作日、周末\节假日分别进行客流预测,每个预测年限预测4套客流预测数据,为深圳轨道交通8号线工程可行性研究提供了必要且充足的数据支撑。Taking Shenzhen metro Line 8 as an example, the passenger flow characteristics of tourism-oriented urban rail lines are analyzed. The traditional passenger flow forecasting method is improved according to the tourism characteristics, RP / SP survey and other means are used to establish a forecasting model. In which, the convention that the passenger flow prediction data are confined to working days only is changed,a new prediction that covers the data of working days, weekends and holidays in both off-season and busy season is proposed, thus four sets of data in each forecasting period will be collected. The research results provide necessary and sufficient data to support the feasibility study of Shenzhen metro Line 8 operation.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 旅游客流预测 淡旺季客流预测 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] U231[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]