基于CA和MAS的哈尔滨城市土地利用变化研究  

Urban Land Use Change Research in Harbin Based on MAS and Celluar Automata

作　　者：李继红[1] 甘依童 李文慧[1] 贡雪红 赵宇庭 孟康 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学林学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《森林工程》2018年第1期30-35,共6页Forest Engineering

基　　金：黑龙江省博士后基金资助(LBH-Z10279);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2572014CB20);哈尔滨市应用技术研究与开发项目(2015RQQXJ071);东北林业大学大学生创新训练项目(201610225009)

摘　　要：以哈尔滨市市区为研究对象,通过构建基于多特征的面向对象的分类方法,对区域2000、2010、2015三期Landsat遥感数据进行解译,将土地利用类型结合分辨率特性划分为居民地、水体湿地、林草用地、农田和未利用地五个类别。建模时,利用构建的坡度、坡向、交通、服务设施、河流水域和人口等多个因子,通过Markov模型计算旋转面积矩阵和转化概率矩阵,采用ACO(蚁群优化算法)结合类型转化概率矩阵构建CA(元胞自动机)模型土地利用类型转化规则。然后利用土地规划纲要,采用matlab平台对CA-MAS(多智能体)模型进行集成,进而对CA模型进行修正,最终得到模拟结果,实现模型耦合。最后以2015年基准数据,对2020年城市空间格局进行模拟分析。耦合模型总体精度90.88%,kappa系数0.887,一致性良好,各个地类的也达到较好模拟精度。模型总体精度、各个用户类别精度、模型的一致性和模型具体参量的模拟上均表现突出,表明CA-MAS耦合模型在城市空间格局演化模拟中效果良好,具有一定的应用潜力。This paper took Harbin city as the research object, by constructing the object-oriented classification method based on multi features, combining the characteristics of resolution to interpret the Landsat remote sensing data of 2000, 2010 and 2015 , which were divided into residential land, wetland, water and land, farmland and unused five categories land use types individually. When modeling, utilizing multiple factors which were constructed such as slope, aspect, traffic, service facilities, water, population and so on, using Markov model to calculate rotation matrix and area conversion probability matrix, and using AGO （ Ant Colony Optimiza-tion） combined with the rule of transforming type conversion probability matrix to construct the GA model of land use type conversion rules. Next, using land planning outline, the GA - MAS model was integrated to modify GA model by the MATLAB platform. Final-ly, based on the datum data of 2015, the urban spatial pattern in 2020 was simulated and analyzed. The overall accuracy of the cou-pling model was 90. 88% , and the kappa coefficient was 0. 887. The consistency was effective, and the various land types also a-chieved good simulation accuracy. Model overall accuracy, each user category accuracy, consistency and model specific parameters of the model on the simulation were prominent, which showed that the GA - MAS coupled model evolution simulation had good effect in city spatial pattern and a certain potential of application.

关 键 词：面向对象分类 CA模型 MAS模型 城市土地利用 演化模拟 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] P209[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]